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Mali national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Oct 11, 2024 at 8pm UK
Stade 26 Mars
Guinea-Bissau national football team

Mali
1 - 0
Guinea-Bissau

FT(HT: 0-0)

Encada (29'), Balde (64'), Nogueira (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Mali and Guinea-Bissau, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Eswatini 0-1 Mali
Tuesday, September 10 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Mozambique 2-1 Guinea-Bissau
Tuesday, September 10 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

We said: Mali 2-1 Guinea-Bissau

Mali's strong home record, combined with their impressive head-to-head history against Guinea-Bissau, gives them a significant advantage in this match. While the home side may dominate the game and create more chances, Guinea-Bissau are capable of exploiting any defensive lapses to get a goal. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 55.24%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Guinea-Bissau had a probability of 19.88%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.01%) and 2-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%), while for a Guinea-Bissau win it was 0-1 (7.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Mali in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Mali.

Result
MaliDrawGuinea-Bissau
55.24% (-0.515 -0.52) 24.88% (0.202 0.2) 19.88% (0.314 0.31)
Both teams to score 46.01% (-0.096000000000004 -0.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.77% (-0.376 -0.38)55.23% (0.378 0.38)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.54% (-0.31 -0.31)76.46% (0.313 0.31)
Mali Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.04% (-0.34699999999999 -0.35)19.96% (0.35 0.35)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.88% (-0.567 -0.57)52.12% (0.568 0.57)
Guinea-Bissau Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.48% (0.131 0.13)42.52% (-0.128 -0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.12% (0.113 0.11)78.88% (-0.10899999999999 -0.11)
Score Analysis
    Mali 55.23%
    Guinea-Bissau 19.88%
    Draw 24.88%
MaliDrawGuinea-Bissau
1-0 @ 13.67% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
2-0 @ 11.01% (-0.08 -0.08)
2-1 @ 9.42% (-0.034000000000001 -0.03)
3-0 @ 5.92% (-0.108 -0.11)
3-1 @ 5.06% (-0.074999999999999 -0.07)
4-0 @ 2.39% (-0.07 -0.07)
3-2 @ 2.17% (-0.024 -0.02)
4-1 @ 2.04% (-0.052 -0.05)
Other @ 3.55%
Total : 55.23%
1-1 @ 11.69% (0.08 0.08)
0-0 @ 8.49% (0.123 0.12)
2-2 @ 4.03%
Other @ 0.67%
Total : 24.88%
0-1 @ 7.26% (0.131 0.13)
1-2 @ 5% (0.054 0.05)
0-2 @ 3.1% (0.067 0.07)
1-3 @ 1.43% (0.021 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.15% (0.004 0)
Other @ 1.94%
Total : 19.88%

How you voted: Mali vs Guinea-Bissau

Mali
81.0%
Draw
9.5%
Guinea-Bissau
9.5%
21
Head to Head
Jan 6, 2024 7pm
Friendlies 3
Mali
6-2
Guinea-Bissau
Niakate (6'), Coulibaly (15'), Doumbia (40'), Dorgeles (68', 85'), Sacko (75')
(33')
Balde (37'), Mane (42')
(45')
rhs 2.0
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