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Championship | Gameweek 35
Mar 2, 2024 at 3pm UK
St. Andrew's Stadium
Southampton logo

Birmingham
3 - 4
Southampton

Miyoshi (2'), Stansfield (41'), Bacuna (77')
Miyoshi (24'), Sunjic (87'), Laird (88')
Sanderson (62')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Armstrong (18'), Brooks (55'), Adams (59'), Aribo (90+6')
Smallbone (67')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Birmingham City and Southampton, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Birmingham City 1-2 Southampton

Birmingham are weaker without manager Mowbray in the dugout, but Blues always make a good fight of it against the division's biggest teams at St Andrew's. Southampton desperately need a positive result to get back on track for automatic promotion, and we believe that the Saints will narrowly get over the line in the Second City. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 43.53%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 31.87% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.76%) and 0-2 (6.9%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 2-1 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.

Result
Birmingham CityDrawSouthampton
31.87% (-0.301 -0.3) 24.6% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01) 43.53% (0.312 0.31)
Both teams to score 57.99% (-0.092999999999996 -0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.15% (-0.068000000000005 -0.07)44.85% (0.067 0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.79% (-0.064 -0.06)67.21% (0.063999999999993 0.06)
Birmingham City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.12% (-0.221 -0.22)26.88% (0.222 0.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.81% (-0.293 -0.29)62.19% (0.294 0.29)
Southampton Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.3% (0.111 0.11)20.7% (-0.112 -0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.7% (0.177 0.18)53.3% (-0.177 -0.18)
Score Analysis
    Birmingham City 31.87%
    Southampton 43.53%
    Draw 24.59%
Birmingham CityDrawSouthampton
2-1 @ 7.56% (-0.048 -0.05)
1-0 @ 7.31% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
2-0 @ 4.8% (-0.046 -0.05)
3-1 @ 3.31% (-0.042 -0.04)
3-2 @ 2.61% (-0.024 -0.02)
3-0 @ 2.1% (-0.034 -0.03)
4-1 @ 1.09% (-0.021 -0.02)
Other @ 3.09%
Total : 31.87%
1-1 @ 11.51%
2-2 @ 5.96% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
0-0 @ 5.56% (0.016 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.37% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 24.59%
1-2 @ 9.07% (0.031000000000001 0.03)
0-1 @ 8.76% (0.055 0.05)
0-2 @ 6.9% (0.067 0.07)
1-3 @ 4.76% (0.033 0.03)
0-3 @ 3.62% (0.048 0.05)
2-3 @ 3.13% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-4 @ 1.88% (0.02 0.02)
0-4 @ 1.43% (0.024 0.02)
2-4 @ 1.23% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.75%
Total : 43.53%

How you voted: Birmingham vs Southampton

Birmingham City
25.0%
Draw
18.2%
Southampton
56.8%
44
Head to Head
Oct 28, 2023 12.30pm
Gameweek 14
Southampton
3-1
Birmingham
Harwood-Bellis (9'), Alcaraz (22'), Armstrong (86')
Stansfield (58')
Aiwu (44'), Gardner (80'), James (90+3'), Stansfield (90+9')
Feb 4, 2012 5.20pm
Birmingham
0-0
Southampton
Caldwell (89')
Fox (22')
Fox (83')
Sep 18, 2011 3pm
Southampton
4-1
Birmingham
Lambert (34', 11' pen.), Chaplow (78')
Wood (49')
Caldwell (10'), Spector (14'), Carr (81')
Mar 7, 2009 3pm
Aug 16, 2008 3pm
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Ipswich TownIpswich432611685533289
2Leicester CityLeicester422841079384188
3Leeds UnitedLeeds43269876344287
4Southampton42259884543084
5West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom4320121166422472
6Norwich CityNorwich432181476601671
7Hull City421811136254865
8Coventry CityCoventry4217121366521463
9Middlesbrough43189166156563
10Preston North EndPreston43189165660-463
11Cardiff CityCardiff43185204860-1259
12Bristol City431610175046458
13Sunderland43168195250256
14Swansea CitySwansea431411185362-953
15Watford431216155958152
16Millwall431311194255-1350
17Blackburn RoversBlackburn431310205771-1449
18Plymouth ArgylePlymouth431212195866-848
19Queens Park RangersQPR431211204057-1747
20Stoke CityStoke431211204160-1947
21Birmingham CityBirmingham43129224864-1645
22Huddersfield TownHuddersfield43917174770-2344
23Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds43128233667-3144
RRotherham UnitedRotherham43411283285-5323


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