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Championship | Gameweek 15
Nov 9, 2024 at 12.30pm UK
Riverside Stadium
Luton Town

Middlesbrough
5 - 1
Luton

Burgzorg (30', 54'), Latte Lath (43'), Azaz (51', 87')
Burgzorg (31')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Clark (77')
Baptiste (15'), Hashioka (49'), Clark (62'), Morris (66')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Middlesbrough and Luton Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: QPR 1-4 Middlesbrough
Tuesday, November 5 at 7.45pm in Championship
Last Game: Luton 1-0 Cardiff
Wednesday, November 6 at 8pm in Championship

We said: Middlesbrough 1-1 Luton Town

With Boro having finally hit the goal trail in midweek, they will be confident on building on that performance. However, Luton may have finally turned the corner, leading us to predict a hard-fought draw for the Hatters this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 56.15%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 21.18%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.89%) and 2-0 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.7%), while for a Luton Town win it was 0-1 (5.8%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.

Result
MiddlesbroughDrawLuton Town
56.15% (0.038000000000004 0.04) 22.67% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02) 21.18% (-0.016000000000002 -0.02)
Both teams to score 54.58% (0.044000000000004 0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.19% (0.073 0.07)44.81% (-0.073 -0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.83% (0.071000000000005 0.07)67.16% (-0.070999999999998 -0.07)
Middlesbrough Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.22% (0.037999999999997 0.04)15.78% (-0.038 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.09% (0.07 0.07)44.91% (-0.07 -0.07)
Luton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.81% (0.024000000000001 0.02)35.19% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.05% (0.026 0.03)71.94% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)
Score Analysis
    Middlesbrough 56.14%
    Luton Town 21.18%
    Draw 22.67%
MiddlesbroughDrawLuton Town
1-0 @ 10.25% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-1 @ 9.89% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 9.47% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
3-1 @ 6.09% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-0 @ 5.83% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-2 @ 3.18% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
4-1 @ 2.81% (0.008 0.01)
4-0 @ 2.69% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.47% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.04% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
5-0 @ 0.99% (0.003 0)
Other @ 2.45%
Total : 56.14%
1-1 @ 10.7% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
0-0 @ 5.55% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.16% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-3 @ 1.11% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 22.67%
0-1 @ 5.8% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
1-2 @ 5.59% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-2 @ 3.03% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
1-3 @ 1.95% (0.0010000000000001 0)
2-3 @ 1.8% (0.0029999999999999 0)
0-3 @ 1.05% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 1.96%
Total : 21.18%

How you voted: Middlesbrough vs Luton

Middlesbrough
75.7%
Draw
13.5%
Luton Town
10.8%
37
Head to Head
Apr 24, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 44
Luton
2-1
Middlesbrough
Lockyer (49'), Morris (67' pen.)
Archer (40')
Dec 10, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 22
Middlesbrough
2-1
Luton
Akpom (38'), Crooks (90+1')
Clark (33')
Mar 5, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 36
Middlesbrough
2-1
Luton
McNair (17' pen.), Watmore (87')
Lumley (90+1'), Coburn (90+3')
Cornick (90+6')
Jerome (20'), Hylton (50'), Lansbury (61')
Nov 2, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 16
Luton
3-1
Middlesbrough
Bradley (57'), Adebayo (60'), Cornick (62')
Potts (30'), Bree (31'), Onyedinma (70'), Lansbury (79')
Coburn (15')
Crooks (39'), Coburn (59'), Watmore (74')
May 1, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 45
Luton
1-1
Middlesbrough
Rea (19')
Rea (75')
Watmore (21')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd19125227111639
2Leeds UnitedLeeds19115333132038
3Burnley1910722471737
4Sunderland19106328141436
5Middlesbrough1994633221131
6Blackburn RoversBlackburn189452217531
7Watford189362624230
8West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom1961122114729
9Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds197572328-526
10Norwich CityNorwich196763530525
11Millwall186752016425
12Bristol City196762424025
13Swansea CitySwansea196671918124
14Coventry CityCoventry195682527-221
15Stoke CityStoke195682024-421
16Derby CountyDerby195592226-420
17Preston North EndPreston1931061826-819
18Luton TownLuton1954102134-1319
19Oxford UnitedOxford Utd184682028-818
20Queens Park RangersQPR193971826-818
21Cardiff CityCardiff184591728-1117
22Plymouth ArgylePlymouth184591838-2017
23Portsmouth173772130-916
24Hull City1936101727-1015


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