MX23RW : Thursday, July 25 16:39:19| >> :120:50591:50591:
Italy national football team
European Championship | Group Stage
Jun 15, 2024 at 8pm UK
Signal-Iduna-Park
Albania national football team

Italy
2 - 1
Albania

Bastoni (11'), Barella (16')
Pellegrini (22'), Calafiori (51')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Bajrami (1')
Broja (51'), Hoxha (74')

The Match

Match Report

Italy bounce back from an early setback to record a 2-1 victory over Albania in their Euro 2024 opener on Saturday night.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's European Championship clash between Italy and Albania, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Italy could line up for Saturday's Euro 2024 clash with Albania.

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Last Game: Italy 1-0 Bosnia H'vina
Sunday, June 9 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies
All competitions
Last Game: Albania 3-1 Azerbaijan
Friday, June 7 at 6pm in International Friendlies

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 54.77%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Albania had a probability of 21.39%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.96%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.33%), while for an Albania win it was 0-1 (6.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Italy would win this match.

Result
ItalyDrawAlbania
54.77% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02) 23.83%21.39% (0.021999999999998 0.02)
Both teams to score 51.2% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.55% (0.018000000000001 0.02)49.44% (-0.019000000000005 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.51% (0.016000000000002 0.02)71.48% (-0.016999999999996 -0.02)
Italy Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.06% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)17.93% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.25% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)48.75% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Albania Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.39% (0.030999999999999 0.03)37.6% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.61% (0.030999999999999 0.03)74.38% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)
Score Analysis
    Italy 54.76%
    Albania 21.39%
    Draw 23.83%
ItalyDrawAlbania
1-0 @ 11.58% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-0 @ 9.96% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.74%
3-0 @ 5.71% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-1 @ 5.58%
3-2 @ 2.73% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-0 @ 2.45% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
4-1 @ 2.4% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-2 @ 1.17% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 3.45%
Total : 54.76%
1-1 @ 11.33%
0-0 @ 6.74% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
2-2 @ 4.76% (0.0039999999999996 0)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 23.83%
0-1 @ 6.6% (0.00099999999999945 0)
1-2 @ 5.54% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-2 @ 3.23% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-3 @ 1.81% (0.0029999999999999 0)
2-3 @ 1.55% (0.0029999999999999 0)
0-3 @ 1.05% (0.002 0)
Other @ 1.62%
Total : 21.39%

How you voted: Italy vs Albania

Italy
82.3%
Draw
8.5%
Albania
9.3%
626
Head to Head
Nov 16, 2022 7.45pm
International Friendly
Albania
1-3
Italy
Ismajli (16')
Di Lorenzo (20'), Grifo (25', 64')
Oct 9, 2017 7.45pm
Group Stage
Albania
0-1
Italy
Candreva (73')
Mar 24, 2017 7.45pm
Group Stage
Italy
2-0
Albania
De Rossi (12' pen.), Immobile (71')
rhs 2.0
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