MX23RW : Thursday, July 25 16:39:16| >> :120:50589:50589:
Spain national football team
European Championship | Group Stage
Jun 20, 2024 at 8pm UK
VELTINS-Arena
Italy national football team

Spain
1 - 0
Italy

Calafiori (55' og.)
Rodri (45+1'), Le Normand (69'), Carvajal (90+6')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Donnarumma (15'), Cristante (46')

The Match

Match Report

Spain put in an impressive display to claim a narrow 1-0 victory over Italy and seal their place in the last 16 at Euro 2024.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's European Championship clash between Spain and Italy, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Spain could line up for Thursday's Euro 2024 clash with Italy.

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
European Championship
Last Game: Spain 3-0 Croatia
Saturday, June 15 at 5pm in European Championship
Current Group B Standings P GD PTS
1Spain133
2Italy113
3Albania2-11
4Croatia2-31
All competitions
European Championship
Last Game: Italy 2-1 Albania
Saturday, June 15 at 8pm in European Championship
Current Group B Standings P GD PTS
1Spain133
2Italy113
3Albania2-11
4Croatia2-31

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 45.44%. A win for Italy had a probability of 29.99% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.19%) and 2-0 (7.36%). The likeliest Italy win was 1-2 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Spain would win this match.

Result
SpainDrawItaly
45.44% (0.075000000000003 0.08) 24.57% (0.271 0.27) 29.99% (-0.347 -0.35)
Both teams to score 57.11% (-1.128 -1.13)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.43% (-1.392 -1.39)45.57% (1.393 1.39)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.1% (-1.341 -1.34)67.9% (1.341 1.34)
Spain Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.84% (-0.533 -0.53)20.16% (0.533 0.53)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.56% (-0.861 -0.86)52.44% (0.861 0.86)
Italy Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.53% (-0.929 -0.93)28.47% (0.929 0.93)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.76% (-1.18 -1.18)64.24% (1.181 1.18)
Score Analysis
    Spain 45.44%
    Italy 29.99%
    Draw 24.56%
SpainDrawItaly
2-1 @ 9.25% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
1-0 @ 9.19% (0.391 0.39)
2-0 @ 7.36% (0.194 0.19)
3-1 @ 4.94% (-0.079 -0.08)
3-0 @ 3.93% (0.04 0.04)
3-2 @ 3.1% (-0.133 -0.13)
4-1 @ 1.98% (-0.065 -0.06)
4-0 @ 1.57% (-0.01 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.24% (-0.075 -0.08)
Other @ 2.88%
Total : 45.44%
1-1 @ 11.54% (0.2 0.2)
2-2 @ 5.81% (-0.149 -0.15)
0-0 @ 5.74% (0.334 0.33)
3-3 @ 1.3% (-0.091 -0.09)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 24.56%
1-2 @ 7.25% (-0.064 -0.06)
0-1 @ 7.21% (0.24 0.24)
0-2 @ 4.53% (0.036 0.04)
1-3 @ 3.04% (-0.107 -0.11)
2-3 @ 2.43% (-0.128 -0.13)
0-3 @ 1.9% (-0.035 -0.04)
1-4 @ 0.95% (-0.06 -0.06)
Other @ 2.68%
Total : 29.99%

How you voted: Spain vs Italy

Spain
60.6%
Draw
20.3%
Italy
19.1%
955
Head to Head
Jun 15, 2023 7.45pm
Semi-Finals
Spain
2-1
Italy
Pino (3'), Joselu (88')
Alba (45+1'), Gavi (57'), Morata (83')
Immobile (11' pen.)
Immobile (38'), Zaniolo (90+3')
Oct 6, 2021 7.45pm
Semi-Finals
Italy
1-2
Spain
Pellegrini (83')
Bonucci (30'), Locatelli (82')
Bonucci (42')
Torres (17', 45+2')
Azpilicueta (45'), Sarabia (65'), Pino (71'), Oyarzabal (89')
Jul 6, 2021 8pm
Semi-Finals
Italy
1-1
Spain
(Aggregate 1-1 | Italy win 4-2 on penalties)
Chiesa (60')
Toloi (97'), Bonucci (118')
Morata (80')
Busquets (51')
Sep 2, 2017 7.45pm
Group Stage
Spain
3-0
Italy
Isco (13', 40'), Morata (77')
Oct 6, 2016 7.45pm
Group Stage
Italy
1-1
Spain
De Rossi (82' pen.)
Vitolo (55')
rhs 2.0
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