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League One | Gameweek 28
Jan 15, 2024 at 8pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Burton Albion

Derby
3 - 2
Burton Albion

Barkhuizen (29'), Collins (49'), Hourihane (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Seddon (54'), Hugill (65')
Oshilaja (64')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's League One clash between Derby County and Burton Albion, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Derby County 2-0 Burton Albion

Derby cruised to a 3-0 win in the reverse fixture in August, and we think that they will claim another win against Burton to move into the League One promotion places. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 70.39%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Burton Albion had a probability of 11.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.01%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.34%), while for a Burton Albion win it was 0-1 (3.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawBurton Albion
70.39% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01) 17.65% (0.0030000000000001 0) 11.95% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Both teams to score 50.86% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.62% (-0.010000000000005 -0.01)39.37% (0.010000000000005 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.28% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)61.71% (0.011000000000003 0.01)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.99% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)10.01% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.95% (-0.0099999999999909 -0.01)33.05% (0.009999999999998 0.01)
Burton Albion Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.51% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)43.48% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.3% (-0.004999999999999 -0)79.7% (0.0050000000000097 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 70.38%
    Burton Albion 11.95%
    Draw 17.65%
Derby CountyDrawBurton Albion
2-0 @ 11.52%
1-0 @ 10.01%
2-1 @ 9.6% (0.0010000000000012 0)
3-0 @ 8.85% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-1 @ 7.37% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-0 @ 5.09% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-1 @ 4.24% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-2 @ 3.07% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-0 @ 2.34% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-1 @ 1.95% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.77% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 4.58%
Total : 70.38%
1-1 @ 8.34% (0.0020000000000007 0)
0-0 @ 4.35% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-2 @ 4%
Other @ 0.96%
Total : 17.65%
0-1 @ 3.63% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-2 @ 3.47% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 1.51%
2-3 @ 1.11%
1-3 @ 0.96%
Other @ 1.27%
Total : 11.95%

How you voted: Derby vs Burton Albion

Derby County
82.9%
Draw
8.6%
Burton Albion
8.6%
35
Head to Head
Aug 12, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 2
Burton Albion
0-3
Derby

Seddon (2'), Maamria (3')
Collins (6'), Hourihane (78'), Washington (84')
Mendez-Laing (45+2'), Hourihane (66'), Cashin (90+6')
Apr 22, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 44
Derby
1-0
Burton Albion
McGoldrick (63' pen.)
Dec 10, 2022 2pm
Jul 20, 2019 3pm
Pre-season Friendlies
Burton Albion
2-5
Derby
Brayford (22'), Fraser (51')
Waghorn (16', 28', 37'), Bennett (47'), Bird (93')
Apr 14, 2018 3pm
Burton Albion
3-1
Derby
Boyce (24'), Murphy (44'), Akins (68')
Buxton (39'), Brayford (63'), Akpan (77')
Nugent (29')
Huddlestone (49')
rhs 2.0
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