Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 44.14%. A win for CD Guadalajara had a probability of 29.87% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9%) and 2-0 (7.83%). The likeliest CD Guadalajara win was 0-1 (8.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.