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Premier League | Gameweek 17
Mar 13, 2024 at 7.30pm UK
Vitality Stadium
Luton Town

Bournemouth
4 - 3
Luton

Solanke (50'), Zabarnyi (62'), Semenyo (64', 83')
Smith (69')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Chong (9'), Ogbene (31'), Barkley (45+1')
Clark (30'), Ogbene (66')

The Match

Match Report

Bournemouth astonishingly fight back from three goals down to beat Luton Town 4-3 in the Premier League at the Vitality Stadium.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Bournemouth and Luton Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bournemouth win with a probability of 57.33%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 21.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bournemouth win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.86%) and 2-0 (8.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.96%), while for a Luton Town win it was 1-2 (5.6%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bournemouth would win this match.

Result
BournemouthDrawLuton Town
57.33% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03) 21.57% (0.038 0.04) 21.1% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Both teams to score 58.25% (-0.131 -0.13)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.1% (-0.172 -0.17)39.9% (0.178 0.18)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.74% (-0.17899999999999 -0.18)62.26% (0.185 0.19)
Bournemouth Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.27% (-0.066000000000003 -0.07)13.73% (0.071 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.01% (-0.136 -0.14)41% (0.142 0.14)
Luton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.52% (-0.096999999999994 -0.1)32.48% (0.103 0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.99% (-0.11 -0.11)69.01% (0.116 0.12)
Score Analysis
    Bournemouth 57.33%
    Luton Town 21.1%
    Draw 21.57%
BournemouthDrawLuton Town
2-1 @ 9.89% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-0 @ 8.86% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
2-0 @ 8.79% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
3-1 @ 6.54% (-0.015 -0.01)
3-0 @ 5.82% (0.0029999999999992 0)
3-2 @ 3.68% (-0.018 -0.02)
4-1 @ 3.25% (-0.015 -0.01)
4-0 @ 2.89% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.83% (-0.014 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.29% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
5-0 @ 1.15% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 3.36%
Total : 57.33%
1-1 @ 9.96% (0.029 0.03)
2-2 @ 5.56% (-0.013 -0.01)
0-0 @ 4.46% (0.037 0.04)
3-3 @ 1.38% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 21.57%
1-2 @ 5.6% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-1 @ 5.02% (0.026999999999999 0.03)
0-2 @ 2.82% (0.008 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.1% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
2-3 @ 2.08% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.06%
Other @ 2.43%
Total : 21.1%

How you voted: Bournemouth vs Luton

Bournemouth
60.7%
Draw
24.7%
Luton Town
14.6%
356
Head to Head
Jan 15, 2022 12.30pm
Gameweek 27
Luton
3-2
Bournemouth
Kelly (30' og.), Campbell (42'), Naismith (90+6')
Marcondes (51'), Rogers (78')
Lerma (81'), Christie (89')
Sep 25, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 9
Bournemouth
2-1
Luton
Billing (17'), Solanke (31')
Pearson (49'), Lowe (90+2')
Burke (64')
Jan 16, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 24
Bournemouth
0-1
Luton

Billing (90+3')
Lerma (26')
Dewsbury-Hall (67')
Pearson (90+2'), Hylton (90+6')
Dec 19, 2020 3pm
Jan 4, 2020 5.31pm
Third Round
Bournemouth
4-0
Luton
Billing (8', 79'), Wilson (67'), Solanke (82')
Billing (41')

Jones (41')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bournemouth00000000
2Arsenal00000000
3Aston Villa00000000
4Brentford00000000
5Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton00000000
6Chelsea00000000
7Crystal Palace00000000
8Everton00000000
9Fulham00000000
10Ipswich TownIpswich00000000
11Leicester CityLeicester00000000
12Liverpool00000000
13Manchester CityMan City00000000
14Manchester UnitedMan Utd00000000
15Newcastle UnitedNewcastle00000000
16Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest00000000
17Southampton00000000
18Tottenham HotspurSpurs00000000
19West Ham UnitedWest Ham00000000
20Wolverhampton WanderersWolves00000000


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