Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 68.06%. A draw had a probability of 19.3% and a win for Santa Clara had a probability of 12.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.87%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.18%), while for a Santa Clara win it was 0-1 (4.38%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Santa Clara |
68.06% ( 0.6) | 19.31% ( -0.17) | 12.63% ( -0.43) |
Both teams to score 47.27% ( -0.72) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.77% ( -0.29) | 45.23% ( 0.29) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.42% ( -0.27) | 67.58% ( 0.28) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.74% ( 0.08) | 12.26% ( -0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
62.01% ( 0.17) | 37.99% ( -0.17) |
Santa Clara Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
53.87% ( -0.87) | 46.13% ( 0.87) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
18.18% ( -0.68) | 81.82% ( 0.68) |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Santa Clara |
2-0 @ 12.45% ( 0.23) 1-0 @ 11.87% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 9.64% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 8.71% ( 0.19) 3-1 @ 6.74% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 4.57% ( 0.11) 4-1 @ 3.54% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.61% ( -0.07) 5-0 @ 1.92% ( 0.05) 5-1 @ 1.49% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.37% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.14% Total : 68.05% | 1-1 @ 9.18% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 5.66% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 3.73% ( -0.11) Other @ 0.75% Total : 19.31% | 0-1 @ 4.38% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 3.55% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.05) Other @ 1.13% Total : 12.63% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 25 | 24 |
2 | Porto | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 21 |
3 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 16 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 15 |
5 | Braga | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 14 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 14 |
7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 11 |
9 | Gil Vicente | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 |
10 | AVS | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 9 |
11 | Casa Pia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 8 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 8 |
13 | AroucaArouca | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 7 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 6 |
15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 6 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 5 |
17 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 5 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 4 |
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