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Arouca
Benfica
Boavista
Braga
Casa Pia
Estoril
Estrela Amadora
Famalicao logo
Gil Vicente logo
Moreirense
Nacional
Porto
Rio Ave
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Santa Clara
Sporting Lisbon
Vitoria de Guimaraes
Vitoria de Guimaraes
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 33
May 11, 2024 at 8.30pm UK
Estadio Dom Afonso Henriques
Braga

Guimaraes
2 - 3
Braga

Gaspar (10'), Mangas (80')
Charles (25'), Gaspar (50'), Andre (69'), Santos (83')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Bruma (24'), Horta (75'), Lopes (90+3')
Fonte (38'), Niakate (83'), Lopes (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Vitoria de Guimaraes and Braga, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Braga 4-3 Casa Pia
Sunday, May 5 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

We said: Vitoria de Guimaraes 1-1 Braga

Both teams have gone through slight wobbles in recent weeks and while Vitoria have been so strong at home this season, Braga have also been hard to beat when playing on the road. For those reasons, we believe that these two sides are incredibly evenly matched and expect this one to end in a draw. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 38.19%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 36.45% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.45%) and 0-2 (6.15%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 (8.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.

Result
Vitoria de GuimaraesDrawBraga
36.45% (-0.266 -0.27) 25.36% (0.020000000000003 0.02) 38.19% (0.249 0.25)
Both teams to score 56.46% (-0.076000000000001 -0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.68% (-0.091000000000001 -0.09)47.32% (0.095000000000006 0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.46% (-0.084000000000003 -0.08)69.54% (0.087000000000003 0.09)
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.67% (-0.19199999999999 -0.19)25.33% (0.193 0.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.88% (-0.263 -0.26)60.12% (0.264 0.26)
Braga Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.62% (0.092999999999989 0.09)24.38% (-0.090999999999998 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.21% (0.129 0.13)58.79% (-0.125 -0.13)
Score Analysis
    Vitoria de Guimaraes 36.45%
    Braga 38.19%
    Draw 25.36%
Vitoria de GuimaraesDrawBraga
1-0 @ 8.48% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
2-1 @ 8.22% (-0.037000000000001 -0.04)
2-0 @ 5.82% (-0.040999999999999 -0.04)
3-1 @ 3.76% (-0.038 -0.04)
3-0 @ 2.67% (-0.034 -0.03)
3-2 @ 2.65% (-0.02 -0.02)
4-1 @ 1.29% (-0.02 -0.02)
4-0 @ 0.92% (-0.017 -0.02)
4-2 @ 0.91% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 1.73%
Total : 36.45%
1-1 @ 11.97% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
0-0 @ 6.18% (0.024 0.02)
2-2 @ 5.8% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.25% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 25.36%
0-1 @ 8.72% (0.056000000000001 0.06)
1-2 @ 8.45% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
0-2 @ 6.15% (0.056 0.06)
1-3 @ 3.97% (0.024 0.02)
0-3 @ 2.89% (0.034 0.03)
2-3 @ 2.73% (0.0020000000000002 0)
1-4 @ 1.4% (0.012 0.01)
0-4 @ 1.02% (0.015 0.01)
2-4 @ 0.96% (0.003 0)
Other @ 1.89%
Total : 38.19%

How you voted: Guimaraes vs Braga

Vitoria de Guimaraes
17.4%
Draw
17.4%
Braga
65.2%
23
Head to Head
Jan 6, 2024 8.30pm
Gameweek 16
Braga
1-1
Guimaraes
Carvalho (53')
Horta (70'), Carvalho (83')
Mendes (90+8')
Feb 27, 2023 9.15pm
Gameweek 22
Guimaraes
2-1
Braga
Silva (31' pen.), Safira (41')
Djalo (88')
Jan 11, 2023 6.45pm
Round of 16
Braga
3-2
Guimaraes
Ruiz (80', 85'), Oliveira (83')
Silva (16'), Silva (45+6')
Sep 3, 2022 3.30pm
Gameweek 5
Braga
1-0
Guimaraes
Tormena (90+8')
Elmusrati (45+1'), Silva (90+1')

Amaro (2'), Freitas (18'), Fernandes (23'), Varela (59'), Lameiras (90+1'), Silva (90+1'), Safira (90+6')
Feb 5, 2022 8.30pm
Gameweek 21
Guimaraes
2-1
Braga
Estupinan (18'), Luz (90')
Silva (3'), Estupinan (29'), Handel (43'), Fernandes (45')
Semedo (58')
Oliveira (48')
Rodrigues (20')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1AroucaArouca00000000
2AVS00000000
3Benfica00000000
4BoavistaBoavista00000000
5Casa Pia00000000
6Estoril PraiaEstoril00000000
7Estrela Amadora00000000
8FamalicaoFamalicao00000000
9SC FarenseFarense00000000
10Gil Vicente00000000
11MoreirenseMoreirense00000000
12Nacional00000000
13Porto00000000
14Rio AveRio Ave00000000
15Santa ClaraSanta Clara00000000
16Braga00000000
17Sporting Lisbon00000000
18Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes00000000


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