CONCACAF Nations League | Third-Place Playoff
Mar 23, 2025 at 10pm UK
Masafi Stadium
Canada2 - 1USA
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Canada 0-2 Mexico
Friday, March 21 at 2.30am in CONCACAF Nations League
Friday, March 21 at 2.30am in CONCACAF Nations League
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Argentina | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Canada | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Chile | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Peru | 3 | -3 | 1 |
We said: Canada 1-1 USA (USA win on penalties)
The Canadians try too hard to make the perfect play rather than the simple one against the experienced sides in this region and that could come back to bite them on Sunday. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 41.45%. A win for Canada had a probability of 33.6% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.79%) and 0-2 (6.63%). The likeliest Canada win was 2-1 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Canada | Draw | USA |
| 33.6% | 24.95% | 41.45% |
| Both teams to score 57.38% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
