Seeking to snap their six-game winless run, Vizela play host to Famalicao at the Estadio do FC Vizela as round 27 of the Primeira Liga gets underway on Friday.
This game has all the makings of a thrilling and exciting contest as both sides head into the tie separated by just two points and two places in the bottom half of the league standings.
Match preview
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While they were unable to snap their winless run, manager Alvaro Pacheco will be impressed with his side's resilient display last Friday, when they held 2018-19 champions Benfica to a 1-1 draw away from home.
In a frenetic affair at the Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Vizela drew first blood when Cassiano opened the scoring in the 65th minute but academy product Henrique Araujo restored parity for As Aguias 10 minutes later.
The Vizelenses have now failed to taste victory in any of their most recent six games — losing three and picking up three draws — while managing three wins in their last 12 since the turn of the year.
This has been owing to their struggles at the defensive end of the pitch, where they have shipped 20 goals and failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 consecutive games, dating back to a 2-0 victory over Belenenses on January 2.
Vizela have picked up five wins, 10 draws and lost 11 of their 26 games this season to collect 25 points and sit 14th in the Primeira Liga standings, four points above the relegation playoff spot and two behind Friday's visitors.
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Famalicao, on the other hand, failed to return to winning ways last time out as they were held to an uneventful goalless draw by Santa Clara at the Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
Prior to that, Rui Silva's side saw their three-game winning streak come to an end courtesy of a 2-1 loss against Vitoria de Guimaraes on March 6, when Oscar Estupinan and Rochinha scored to cancel out Pepe's opener and hand Os Vimaranenses a comeback victory.
While Famalicao will be seeking to end this dry spell and resume their charge to the top half of the table, they have struggled for form on the road, claiming just one win in their last seven away outings in the league, stretching back to November's 5-2 win at Boavista.
Friday's game will be the fourth-ever meeting between Vizela and Famalicao, with their first two coming in the Segunda Liga back in 2017, while their most recent encounters came in November's reverse fixture, when the spoils were shared in a 1-1 draw.
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Team News
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Vizela will take to the pitch without the services of Raphael Guzzo after the 27-year-old midfielder sustained an injury in February's game against Boavista.
He is joined on the Vizelenses' injury table by Portuguese defender Ivanildo Fernandes, who has been out of action since last November through a groin problem.
The duo of Koffi Kouao and Bruno Wilson are doubts for Friday's clash after both coming off injured midway through the game against Benfica last time out.
With his strike in the aforementioned game last, Cassiano now has five goal involvements in his last six outings and we expect the 32-year-old forward to lead the attack once again.
Meanwhile, Silva remains unable to call upon the services of several key players who are still recuperating from injuries, including the likes of Diogo Figueira and Ruben Lima, who continue their spells on the sidelines.
Spanish youngster Ivan Jamie sustained an injury back in January's game against Arouca and the 21-year-old remains out of contention for the Vila Nova.
Ivo Rodrigues is also expected to sit out his game on the bounce after the 26-year-old forward picked up an injury against Tondela on February 26.
Vizela possible starting lineup:
Silva; Afonso, Anderson, Aidara, Ofori; Claudemir, Rashad; Samu, Bondoso, Moreira; Cassiano
Famalicao possible starting lineup:
Junior; Penetra, Ricceli, Batubinsika; Marin, Pepe, Pikel, Fuente; Teixeira, B Rodrigues; Banza
We say: Vizela 1-1 Famalicao
While they have been solid in attack in recent weeks, Vizela's defensive woes has left them without a win in six consecutive games and just three since the turn of the year. However, fresh off the back of an impressive draw against Benfica, we are tipping the Vizelenses to take the positives from that matchup and snatch a draw against a Famalicao side who appear to have run out of gas.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vizela win with a probability of 39.01%. A win for Famalicao had a probability of 33.27% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vizela win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.17%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Famalicao win was 0-1 (10.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
