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Preview: ATP Finals: Alexander Zverev vs. Andrey Rublev - prediction, form, head-to-head

Sports Mole previews Monday's ATP Finals round-robin match between Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev, including predictions, form and their head-to-head record.

Following some jovial off-court banter, Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev conclude the opening round of ATP World Tour Finals matches in the John Newcombe Group on Monday evening.

The German already has two year-end crowns to his name from the 2018 and 2021 tournaments, while his Russian foe arrived in Turin after being unable to shake the Grand Slam quarter-final curse yet again.


Match preview

Alexander Zverev poses with the trophy after winning the Paris Masters on November 3, 2024© Imago

Thanks to the non-attendance of a 37-year-old Novak Djokovic, Zverev is the second-oldest player at this year's ATP Finals behind Daniil Medvedev, and the 27-year-old German was the brunt of some age-related jokes from Rublev and Casper Ruud during a pre-tournament press conference.

Zverev responded by telling his rivals to pipe down - in a light-hearted manner, of course - but he will swap friendly camaraderie for fierce earnestness on Monday evening, as he kicks off his quest for a third ATP Finals title and to become just the seventh man to win a trio of year-end championships.

The world number two is already just one of 10 players to win more than one ATP Finals crown - and just the second active one after reigning champion Djokovic - and a spectacular set of results over the past year offers hope that he can emulate countryman Boris Becker, winner of three year-end championships.

Zverev is still waiting for that elusive first major title, but he came within a set of French Open glory - losing to Carlos Alcaraz in a five-set blockbuster - while also making the Australian Open semis and quarter-finals of the US Open in the 2024 season.

The 27-year-old also added two more Masters titles to his CV - sinking Ugo Humbert in Paris a matter of weeks ago after triumphing at the Italian Open - although his ATP Finals run last year ended prematurely with a round-robin elimination.

Andrey Rublev pictured on October 25, 2024© Imago

Born exactly six months after Zverev, Rublev could consider himself fortunate not to have been on the receiving end of some age-based quips when he and his rivals faced the media, where the Russian cut a much more cheerful demeanour than he often does on the court.

Renowned for his volatile nature and frequent outbursts when things do not go his way, racquet-smashing Rublev gears up for a fifth straight appearance at the ATP Finals, but he has only ever made it past the first stage in one of his last four showings, losing to Ruud in the 2022 semis.

This time around, the 27-year-old has revealed that he is adopting a more "relaxed" approach to his performances after a topsy-turvy 2024, in which he won his second Masters title at the Madrid Open, took home the Hong Kong Open trophy at the start of the year and finished as runner-up to Alexei Popyrin at the Canadian Open.

However, Rublev's perennial Grand Slam quarter-final curse is still alive and well - he lost in the last eight of a major for the 10th time in a row at the Australian Open - while also suffering a customary meltdown in his first-round Wimbledon exit and only reaching the last 16 in New York.

The Russian has not been able to regain any sort of momentum since his last Grand Slam appearance, losing his first matches in both Shanghai and Paris, while also being beaten in straight sets by an ageing Stanislas Wawrinka in the Stockholm Open quarter-finals. Therefore, pipping any of Zverev, Alcaraz or Ruud to a top-two finish in his ATP Finals section already appears a tall order.


Head To Head

ATP Finals (2023) - Round robin: Zverev wins 6-4 6-4
Vienna Open (2023) - Quarter-final: Rublev wins 6-1 6-7[5] 6-3
Swedish Open (2023) - Quarter-final: Rublev wins 6-2 6-3
Dubai Tennis Championships (2023) - Semi-final: Rublev wins 6-3 7-6[9]
Cincinnati Open (2021) - Final: Zverev wins 6-2 6-3
Australian Open (2020) - Fourth round: Zverev wins 6-4 6-4 6-4
Shanghai Masters (2019) - Last 16: Zverev wins 6-0 7-6[4]
China Open (2017) - Quarter-final: Zverev wins 6-2 6-3
Monte-Carlo Masters (2016) - First round: Zverev wins 6-1 6-3

Renewing a rivalry that has thrown up meetings nearly every year since 2016, Zverev and Rublev are clashing for the 10th time at the top level on Monday, and the German leads the head-to-head counter with six victories to the Russian's three.

However, three of the last four showdowns have been won by Rublev - two on hard courts and one on clay - but their most recent contest in last year's ATP Finals round robin went the way of Zverev.

That 6-4 6-4 triumph marked a first success over Rublev since 2021 for the two-time ATP Finals champion, who won each of their first five encounters without dropping a single set.


SM words green background

We say: Zverev to win in two sets

Whether Rublev does indeed embrace a more tranquil approach on the court remains to be seen - the Russian is an unpredictable force when things go awry - but his form over the autumnal period has been indifferent to say the least.

In contrast, Zverev has been one of the most consistent players on the tour this year and has our backing to defeat his fellow 27-year-old in straight sets once again.

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Novak Djokovic poses with the trophy after winning the ATP Finals on November 19, 2023
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