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Preview: Holger Rune vs. Alexander Zverev - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Paris Masters semi-final between Holger Rune and Alexander Zverev, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Holger Rune has only ever lost one match at the Paris Masters, and he faces Alexander Zverev in Saturday's semi-final, keen to advance to a second final in three years.

The young Dane got the better of Novak Djokovic two years ago before losing to the Serbian superstar in the quarters 12 months back but has made it to the last four this time, keen to stun the six-time Masters 1000 champion.


Match preview

Holger Rune pictured at the Swiss Indoors event on October 22, 2024© Imago

Two years after his outstanding run to the title, Rune is back in the semis after beating ATP Finals-chasing Alex de Minaur in three sets, notching a 6-4, 4-6, 7-5 victory over the Australian.

It was the 21-year-old's consecutive three-set triumph this week after beating home Lucky Loser Arthur Cazaux in the third round 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 after losing the opening set.

While he roared back against the Frenchman, who had most of the crowd on his side, Rune refocused commendably against De Minaur and went big when a third-set tie-break seemed inevitable to notch a second semi-final appearance in three years.

Having improved to 12-1 in the French capital, the 2022 champion bids for a 13th triumph to advance to Sunday's decider and have a chance of making the Finals in Turin.

Alexander Zverev in action at the Paris Masters on October 31, 2024© Imago

His opponent will grant him no favours in his aspiration for another title in Bercy, given Jannik Sinner's non-involvement and Carlos Alcaraz's shock exit to Ugo Humbert.

Zverev had won just 33.3% of his matches against Stefanos Tsitsipas heading into their 16th ATP Tour match, but the German star secured his sixth triumph over the Greek player (7-5, 6-4), whose last-eight defeat ended his prospects of making Turin.

Although the world No. 3 held no such concerns before their match, a second Masters 1000 crown this season and seventh overall was high on the 27-year-old's agenda.

Keen to take advantage of Sinner's withdrawal and Alcaraz's unexpected exit, the two-time semi-finalist returns to the semis in Bercy for the first time since 2021, keen to claim a second title this season.

Beaten by Daniil Medvedev at this stage three years back, Zverev hopes to avoid the same outcome against the four-time ATP champion.


Tournament so far

Holger Rune:

First round: vs. Matteo Arnaldi 6-4 6-4 4
Second round: vs. Alexander Bublik 6-4 6-2
Third round: vs. Arthur Cazaux 3-6 6-3 6-4
Quarter-final: vs. Alex de Minaur 6-4 4-6 7-5

Alexander Zverev:

First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Tallon Griekspoor 7-6(2) 6-3
Third round: vs. Arthur Fils 6-4 3-6 6-3
Quarter-final: vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas 7-5 6-4


Head To Head

Canada Masters (2024) - 2024: Zverev 6-3 7-6(5)

Roland Garros (2024) - Fourth round: Zverev 4-6 6-1 5-7 7-6(2) 6-2

Munich (2022) - Round of 16: Rune 6-3 6-2

Rune got the better of Zverev in their first ATP Tour match-up in Munich two years ago but consecutive wins this year have given the German a 2-1 lead.

The pick of all three encounters was their fourth-round battle at this year's French Open, where the 22-time champion roared back from two sets to one down to clinch an epic five-setter.

Having ended a 0-5 record against top-10 opponents by defeating De Minaur, Rune hopes to clinch consecutive wins over that elite group by eliminating Zverev.


SM words green background

We say: Rune to win in three sets

Rune's impressive ability to adapt to various match situations throughout the tournament, combined with his exceptional track record in Paris, positions him well to secure his 17th victory against a top-10 opponent.

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Written by
Anthony Brown

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Novak Djokovic poses with the trophy after winning the Paris Masters on November 5, 2023
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