If Chelsea Women win their remaining eight games of the Women's Super League season they will be champions again, and they need to continue their title challenge on Sunday, when they welcome Aston Villa Women to Kingsmeadow.
Villa are aiming to bounce back from two consecutive defeats, which has left them in ninth spot, while the Blues currently sit second, five points behind Arsenal but with two games in hand on the Gunners.
Match preview
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Emma Hayes's side bounced back from defeat in the League Cup final with an impressive 4-1 win away at West Ham United on Thursday evening, also meaning that the reigning champions still have the best defensive record in the division.
Goals from Niamh Charles and a brace from Pernille Harder had Chelsea in the driving seat by half time in midweek, and a further goal from Samantha Kerr sealed the three points.
Chelsea had to play that much under difficult circumstances after the news about owner Roman Abramovich broke earlier in the day, but Hayes was delighted that her team put on one of their best performances of the campaign so far.
Unsurprisingly, given the standards Chelsea set themselves, the Blues are unbeaten on home soil this season, winning six out of seven WSL matches on their own patch, and they have to collect another three points this Sunday to keep the pressure on leaders Arsenal.
Hayes's team have scored 17 goals during those home matches and only conceded once, suggesting that Aston Villa may be in for a heavy defeat this weekend.
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Apart from the bottom two teams, Villa have conceded the most goals this season, and so will need to be completely focused defensively if they are to prevent Chelsea from breaking them down.
In that case, Carla Ward's side could look to outscore their hosts as a means of coming away with at least a point, but their record in the final third is also not great, having only netted 11 times in 16 matches.
Aston Villa fell to a 1-0 defeat at the hands of Brighton & Hove Albion last weekend; in an outing that the hosts would have felt as though they created enough chances, Villa just could not put the ball in the back of the net.
Although not mathematically safe just yet, Villa are certain to avoid the drop zone this season, and so are just looking to finish as high as they can and improve on their 10th-placed finish from last year.
These two teams have met on two occasions this season before Sunday, with the Blues winning both times by 1-0 and 3-1 scorelines in November and January.
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Team News
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Chelsea attacker Fran Kirby has missed out on the last two games and she could still be sidelined due to injury this weekend, meaning that Bethany England is likely to retain her place in the front three.
Magdalena Eriksson was on the bench during Chelsea's cup final defeat last weekend, but she missed out on a place in the squad on Thursday, and will not feature from the start this Sunday either.
Ann-Katrin Berger is expected to return between the posts for the hosts, after Zecira Musovic was given her fourth WSL appearance this season in midweek against West Ham.
The visitors are expected to lineup in a 4-3-3 formation, with Alisha Lehmann, Emily Gielnik and Ramona Petzelberger making up the attacking three, who may have to be patient for a chance to arise in the final third.
Ward named an unchanged team last week and she could do the same again with no new injury or suspension concerns, meaning that Ruesha Littlejohn, Jill Scott and Remi Allen are certain to continue in midfield.
Chelsea Women possible starting lineup:
Berger; Carter, Nouwen, Bright; Andersson, Ji, Ingle, Charles; Harder, Kerr, England
Aston Villa Women possible starting lineup:
Hampton; Pacheco, Patten, Asante, Mayling; Allen, Scott, Littlejohn; Petzelberger, Gielnik, Lehmann
We say: Chelsea Women 3-0 Aston Villa Women
Chelsea are strong favourites for this one, given their superior league position and after a strong performance and result against West Ham, and they are not expected to lose ground in the title race this weekend.
Villa have struggled in front of goal this season and with Chelsea being so dominant, especially at Kingsmeadow, there is unlikely to be a chance for the visitors to get on the scoresheet.
Top tip
Sammy Wynne
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea Women win with a probability of 84.57%. A draw had a probability of 10.5% and a win for Aston Villa Women had a probability of 4.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea Women win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.74%) and 4-0 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.95%), while for an Aston Villa Women win it was 0-1 (1.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea Women would win this match.
