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Liverpool logo
Premier League | Gameweek 37
Jul 22, 2020 at 8.15pm UK
Anfield
Chelsea logo

Liverpool
5 - 3
Chelsea

Keita (23'), Alexander-Arnold (38'), Wijnaldum (43'), Firmino (55'), Oxlade-Chamberlain (84')
Gomez (83')
FT(HT: 3-1)
Giroud (45+3'), Abraham (61'), Pulisic (73')

Preview: Liverpool vs. Chelsea - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Premier League showdown between champions Liverpool and Champions League-chasing Chelsea, including predictions and team news.

Liverpool will finally get their hands on the Premier League trophy for the very first time on Wednesday night when they welcome Champions League-chasing Chelsea to Anfield in their final home game of an unforgettable season.

While the main event for the hosts will be after the game, the match itself is of paramount importance to the visitors as they look to secure a top-four spot with a game to spare.


Match preview

Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp pictured on July 11, 2020© Reuters

Alan Hansen was the last Liverpool captain to lift the league trophy above his head some 30 years ago, before the Premier League was even in existence.

On Wednesday night, Jordan Henderson will become the 10th Liverpool skipper to do so, adding his name to an illustrious list which includes Hansen, Graeme Souness, Phil Thompson, Emlyn Hughes, Tommy Smith, Ron Yeats, Willie Fagan, Donald McKinlay and Alex Raisbeck.

It will be a trophy presentation with a difference given the lack of fans in the stadium, with a special podium set to be erected on the Kop and club icon Sir Kenny Dalglish being drafted in to hand out the medals.

It is a moment which has been longed for by Liverpool fans for a generation and will mark the crowning glory of a season which will go down in English football history, although most previous champions will tell you that defeat in the game before lifting the trophy takes some of the shine off it.

Liverpool will therefore be hoping to mark a celebratory occasion with victory over the team that handed them the title with seven games to spare, with Chelsea's triumph over Manchester City last month officially sending the trophy to Anfield.

Liverpool's front three Mohamed Salah, Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mane celebrate scoring against Crystal Palace in June 2020© Reuters

Since then there has undoubtedly been a drop-off from Liverpool, which in the grand scheme of things will be forgotten about relatively quickly but will still irk both manager Jurgen Klopp and his players.

The Merseysiders had a glorious chance to record the best single season in English top-flight history having dropped only two points from their opening 27 games, but since then they have won four, drawn two and lost three.

In all competitions Liverpool have now lost more games (six) than they have won (five) over their last 13 outings, the most recent defeat coming at the hands of Arsenal at the Emirates courtesy of uncharacteristically sloppy errors from Virgil van Dijk and Alisson Becker.

That result ended any hope Liverpool had of breaking the all-time points record, with 99 now the limit heading into their final two games of the campaign, but there are still a few landmarks up for grabs.

Klopp's side could still record the biggest title-winning margin - their lead of 18 points is one short of the current record - while victory on Wednesday would see them equal the records for most home points and most home wins in a single season.

Burnley players celebrate Jay Rodriguez's equalising goal against Liverpool on July 11, 2020© Reuters

Liverpool had been on course to record the first ever perfect home campaign until a 1-1 draw with Burnley in their last such outing - a result which ended an unprecedented run of 24 consecutive league wins at Anfield.

The 58-game unbeaten home run, during which they have now scored 150 goals, continues, but unless the champions can improve on their recent form it could be under threat from a Chelsea team with much more to play for on Wednesday.

Frank Lampard's side remain in pole position to claim one of the two remaining top-four spots, but there is little margin for error heading into a difficult season-ending double-header away to Liverpool and at home to Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Chelsea could even be knocked down to fourth place by the time this match kicks off with Manchester United hosting West Ham United in the earlier kickoff on Wednesday evening, although regardless of what happens there, Chelsea's fate remains in their own hands.

Indeed, Leicester City's defeat at Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday means that Lampard's side need just one win from those final two games to guarantee a top-four finish.

Chelsea manager Frank Lampard pictured on July 7, 2020© Reuters

That alone would constitute a successful first season in charge for Chelsea's club-record goalscorer, who had to contend with a transfer ban and a 4-0 defeat in his first match at the helm when initially taking over a year ago.

It could get even better than Champions League qualification, though, with victory over United in their FA Cup semi-final on Sunday sending them through to the final for a 14th time and leaving Lampard just 90 minutes away from marking his debut season with a major trophy.

It has by no means been plain sailing, though, with Chelsea losing 11 times in the league this season - only once in the Roman Abramovich era have they lost more in a single campaign.

The Blues also have one of the worst defensive records away from home this season, and should they fail to keep a clean sheet at Anfield - something no team has managed since October 2018 - then they will set a new club record for most away goals conceded in a single Premier League campaign.

That tally was not helped by a 3-0 defeat at Sheffield United in their last away game, although back-to-back triumphs over Norwich City and Man United since then ensure that they travel to Merseyside in encouraging form.

Liverpool Premier League form: WLWWDL

Chelsea Premier League form: WLWWLW
Chelsea form (all competitions): LWWLWW


Team News

Liverpool's James Milner pictured while injured on June 21, 2020© Reuters

James Milner is expected to be back in contention for Liverpool in this match after nursing a hamstring injury in recent weeks.

Henderson and Joel Matip are still sidelined, although the former will still lift the trophy despite taking no part in this match.

Klopp named arguably his strongest possible XI against Arsenal last time out and may do the same again here, although Naby Keita is among those pushing for a recall.

Chelsea are still expected to be without N'Golo Kante due to a hamstring injury, while Billy Gilmour remains sidelined by a knee problem.

Lampard named a strong team for the FA Cup win at the weekend, and Kepa Arrizabalaga may be one of the only regular first-teamers to return as a result.

However, the most expensive keeper of all time has now shipped 42 goals in the Premier League this season - the only Chelsea keeper to concede more in a single campaign is Dmitri Kharine in 1993-94 (48).

Olivier Giroud will certainly be expecting to lead the line once more, having netted on Sunday and also scored in his last three Premier League starts.

Liverpool possible starting lineup:
Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Gomez, Van Dijk, Robertson; Keita, Fabinho, Wijnaldum; Salah, Firmino, Mane

Chelsea possible starting lineup:
Kepa; Azpilicueta, Zouma, Rudiger; James, Jorginho, Kovacic, Alonso; Willian, Giroud, Pulisic


Head To Head

This will be the fourth meeting between these two sides this season, with Liverpool having beaten Chelsea in the UEFA Super Cup final and at Stamford Bridge in the league, but Chelsea having knocked Liverpool out of the FA Cup in March.

Liverpool have not done the Premier League double over Chelsea since 2011-12 but have also not lost a league game to the Blues at Anfield since 2014.

In all, these two sides have faced off 185 times before, with Liverpool leading the overall head-to-head record 80 wins to 64.


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Liverpool 2-2 Chelsea

Liverpool are a much more difficult team to predict now than they have been for the vast majority of this season, and it is no longer a surprise to see them drop points since they wrapped the title up.

That said, it is hard to look past such a long unbeaten run at Anfield so, while Chelsea are in much greater need of a win, we can see the spoils being shared.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 51.5%. A win for Chelsea had a probability of 25.7% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.45%) and 2-0 (7.78%). The likeliest Chelsea win was 1-2 (6.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.47%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.


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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool119112161528
2Manchester CityMan City127232217523
3Chelsea126422314922
4Arsenal126422112922
5Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton126422116522
6Tottenham HotspurSpurs1261527131419
7Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest125431513219
8Aston Villa125431919019
9Newcastle UnitedNewcastle115331311218
10Fulham125341717018
11Brentford125252222017
12Manchester UnitedMan Utd114341212015
13Bournemouth124351617-115
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham113351319-612
15Everton122551017-711
16Leicester CityLeicester122461523-810
17Wolverhampton WanderersWolves122372028-89
18Crystal Palace121561017-78
19Ipswich TownIpswich111551222-108
20Southampton11119721-144


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