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World Cup Group B permutations: Who needs what to qualify for the last 16?

Sports Mole takes a closer look at the permutations for England, Wales, Iran and the USA on the final matchday of World Cup 2022 Group B.

Any of the four teams in World Cup 2022 Group B could still force their way into the knockout stages of the competition, with England, Wales, Iran and the USA all vying for the top two spots.

A satisfying points column sees England on four points, Iran on three, the USA on two and Wales on one ahead of Tuesday's pivotal games, with the group leaders facing a battle of the Brits with the Dragons.

Meanwhile, Iran will clash with the USA for the chance to continue their Qatar journey for a little while longer, and there are plenty of permutations for fans to peruse in the next few hours.

Here, Sports Mole takes a closer look at what each team needs to qualify for the last 16 of the World Cup.


ENGLAND

Bukayo Saka celebrates scoring for England on November 21, 2022© Reuters

After putting six past Iran on the opening matchday, producing even half of that stellar attacking acumen would have been enough to see England wrap up a top-two finish with a game to spare against the USA.

However, Gareth Southgate's side must now do it the hard way after being stunted in Friday's match, although they remain in the driving seat in Group B and will qualify as group winners with all three points against Wales.

A draw would also be enough to seal a knockout place, but taking only one point would open the door for Iran or the USA to leapfrog the 2018 semi-finalists and secure a surprise first-placed finish.

Should Southgate's side fall to an unexpected defeat against Wales, England are still protected by their superior goal difference of +4 compared to the Dragons' -2 - and a higher goals scored tally of six compared to one for Wales, so they can afford to lose by three goals and still finish above Rob Page's men.

Wins for Iran or the USA would see them finish above England in those circumstances - consigning the Three Lions to an early exit if Wales win by more than three goals - but a draw between Team Melli and the Stars and Stripes would see Southgate's side hold their place at the top no matter what happens.

For what it is worth, England's exemplary disciplinary record could also come in handy, as Southgate's side have not picked up any yellow or red cards to keep their deduction score at a healthy zero.


IRAN

Iran's Rouzbeh Cheshmi celebrates scoring against Wales on November 25, 2022© Reuters

Iran have given themselves a real shot of advancing after seeing off Wales in dramatic late fashion on Friday, scoring two goals in second-half injury time to break Dragons hearts.

Now sitting pretty in second in the rankings, victory over the USA is all that Carlos Queiroz's men need to make the last 16 for the first time ever, and they would finish top if England cannot beat Wales on Tuesday.

A draw would also suffice assuming England avoid defeat against Wales, otherwise Team Melli and the Dragons would both finish on four points, and Wales would possess the superior goal difference to see them through.

What is clear is that Iran will be eliminated if they lose to the USA, and they post an identical disciplinary record to their American counterparts of -4 - not that it will count for much on the final day.


USA

Timothy Weah celebrates scoring for the USA on November 21, 2022© Reuters

Similarly, the USA are not giving up hope of a knockout place after posting two opening draws versus Wales and England, seeing them sit third in the standings on two points from a possible six.

Gregg Berhalter's side will progress with all three points against Iran, and top spot is not out of the question just yet for the Stars and Stripes if England fail to beat Wales.

A USA win coupled with an England loss would see Berhalter's men finish first, but even if the Three Lions draw, Berhalter's side will pip them to top spot if they can beat Iran by five or more goals.

Such a scenario is highly unlikely, though, and defeat would spell the end of the USA's competitive period in Qatar, consigning them to a group-stage exit for the first time since 2006.


WALES

Wales' Gareth Bale looks dejected following defeat to Iran on November 25, 2022© Reuters

It will not come as much of a surprise to learn that Wales have the most to do in order to upset the apple cart and finish in the top two, having only taken one point from their meetings with Iran and the USA.

Defeat for Page's men against England would confirm their fourth-placed finish, and a draw may only be enough for the consolation prize of a third-placed finish if the USA lose by at least three goals against Iran.

On the other hand, a shock win for Wales would surge them up the rankings and level on points with England, but they would only usurp the Three Lions if they can somehow win by at least four goals - a 3-0 or 4-1 success would still see England finish above them.

Even if Wales can get the job done, they are relying on Iran's clash with the USA ending in a draw to finish in the top two - a win for either side would render their matchday three result inconsequential.

Should Iran and the USA shake hands on a point, Wales will draw level with the former on four points if they beat England and will ultimately finish ahead of them, as they both share an identical goal difference of -2.

If disciplinary points are ultimately needed to settle any tiebreakers, Wales have fared the worst in that regard with -7, with Wayne Hennessey's red card against Iran doing them no favours there.


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Wales manager Robert Page pictured on on November 25, 2022
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