Brighton & Hove Albion go into the second leg of English football's most difficult double-header when they welcome Manchester City to the Amex Stadium on Saturday.
The Seagulls were beaten at home by champions Liverpool on Wednesday night and now take on a Man City side looking to halt a poor run of away form.
Match preview
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Inconsistent and mercurial are not words that have been used to describe Manchester City under Pep Guardiola - or indeed any Guardiola team in the past - but this season they have fitted both descriptions.
The former champions have won 17 matches by three or more goals across all competitions and nine by four or more, including three times in their last six outings and one against usurpers Liverpool.
The most recent example came on Wednesday night as they were majestic in beating Newcastle United 5-0, recording the highest pass completion rate since records began (93.7%) en route to blowing the Magpies away.
It is difficult to fathom just how that same team has been beaten nine times in the Premier League this season - more than Manchester United, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Arsenal, the club's highest tally since the 2015-16 campaign under Manuel Pellegrini and Guardiola's highest tally ever as a manager.
There is also understandable bemusement at how one of the greatest teams in English football history can still find themselves 23 points adrift of leaders Liverpool, although that can largely be attributed to their away form.
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Seven of their nine defeats this season have come on the road, including three in a row heading into this match - the worst run of Guardiola's entire managerial career.
Not since April 2015 have they lost four away league games on the bounce, but they arrive at the Amex with only two goals in their last five such outings and having failed to score more than once in a top-flight away game since January 12.
Quite how they did not score against Southampton last weekend may still bemuse Guardiola, who watched his side have 26 shots without breaking the Saints' stubborn rearguard action.
Regardless of that, Brighton will know that they cannot gift Man City chances like they did to Liverpool on Wednesday night, with two mistakes while playing out from the back seeing them fall two goals down inside eight minutes against the champions.
Ultimately there was no way back from that, although the Seagulls gave it a very good go and could well have come away with something from the game had all of their attacks been as clinical as the one which saw Leandro Trossard score.
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Graham Potter will be pleased with his side's display despite the result, and their performances since the restart do not really match the negative statistics which surround their form as a whole, with their tally of two league wins from 14 games in 2020 being the lowest in the division.
Brighton have also now lost back-to-back home games for the first time since April 2019 and have won just one of their eight outings at the Amex this calendar year.
However, that solitary win did come against Arsenal and they are in the midst of a very difficult run at home, facing Manchester United and Liverpool in their last two before Saturday's visit of Man City.
Fortunately for Potter's side they have built a nice cushion between themselves and the relegation zone, and it would take an unlikely turnaround in form for a number of teams below them in the table for Brighton to be dragged back into the mire now.
The Seagulls are not quite safe yet, but they are much more likely to pick up the points they need to secure their Premier League status in upcoming matches against Southampton, Newcastle United and Burnley.
Brighton Premier League form: DWDLWL
Man City Premier League form: WWLWLW
Man City form (all competitions): WLWWLW
Team News
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Sergio Aguero is the only injury absentee for Man City, but Guardiola must decide to what extent he wants to rotate his squad after again making a number of changes against Newcastle.
The standard of that performance might persuade him to curb his rotation instincts a little, with David Silva in particular starring as he passed 10 assists in all competitions for the 10th time from his 10 seasons with the club.
Kevin De Bruyne will no doubt be desperate to start again as he chases the three more assists he needs to surpass Thierry Henry as the record holder for a single season, having chalked up number 18 against the Magpies.
De Bruyne, along with Benjamin Mendy, were minor injury doubts, but both took part in full training on Friday morning and so should be in contention.
Guardiola is blessed with incredible strength in depth, though, and that was highlighted as Man City became the first English top-flight team since Everton in 1984-85 to have five different players score 10 or more goals in a single league campaign - Riyad Mahrez joining, De Bruyne, Aguero, Gabriel Jesus and Raheem Sterling in double figures.
Brighton's goals have been coming from Trossard recently as he netted in back-to-back Premier League games for the first time against Liverpool, and he has an impressive record at home with seven of his eight goal contributions coming at the Amex.
Potter will once again be without the injured Jose Izquierdo, while Steven Alzate remains doubtful.
Brighton possible starting lineup:
Ryan; Lamptey, Webster, Dunk, Burn; Propper, Stephens, Bissouma; Mac Allister; Maupay, Trossard
Man City possible starting lineup:
Ederson; Walker, Garcia, Laporte, Mendy; De Bruyne, Gundogan, D Silva; Bernardo, Jesus, Sterling
We say: Brighton 1-3 Man City
Brighton looked dangerous against Liverpool and should have scored more than the one goal they managed, so we are backing them to get on the scoresheet again here.
However, we are also backing the same result from that match; Man City have won all five Premier League meetings between these two sides and should have enough to end their poor away form here.
Barney Corkhill
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 71.35%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for Brighton & Hove Albion had a probability of 10.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.72%) and 0-3 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.5%), while for a Brighton & Hove Albion win it was 1-0 (3.84%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
