The Derby de l'Est awaits Metz in their first Ligue 1 encounter of 2022 as Strasbourg pay a visit to the Stade Saint-Symphorien on Sunday afternoon.
Frederic Antonetti's side managed to hold Lyon to a 1-1 draw before the winter break, while the visitors lost 1-0 to Montpellier HSC in the Coupe de France earlier this month.
Match preview
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Metz can boast the honour of being one of the best-represented clubs at the Africa Cup of Nations, but with those seven players now unavailable for at least a couple of weeks, clambering their way to safety will be that little bit more difficult.
Antonetti's side are yet to kick off their 2022 following their early exit from the Coupe de France to Bergerac, but they ended 2021 in impressive fashion by taking a point home from their trip to Lyon, as Boubacar Traore quickly cancelled out Castello Lukeba's effort.
Les Grenats are seemingly set to contend in a relegation dogfight for the second half of the season, though, as they remain in the relegation playoff spot - only above 19th-placed Lorient on goal difference - although they sit just one point adrift of Troyes, Bordeaux and Clermont.
Attempting to improve their standing while a cluster of their first-team players are away on international duty will certainly be a tall order for Metz, who have also seen their ranks depleted by COVID-related absences in recent days.
Furthermore, Met's record of seven points on home soil is the joint-worst in Ligue 1 this season, and they had gone an astonishing 16 games without a win at the Stade Saint-Symphorien before seeing off fellow strugglers Lorient 4-1 last month.
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In stark contrast, Strasbourg can afford to harbour dreams of European football after producing some eye-catching performances under Julien Stephan in the first half of the season, but there will be no shot at glory in the Coupe de France for Les Coureurs.
After beating Valenciennes 1-0 before the winter break, Stephan's side travelled to the Stade de la Mosson for an all-Ligue 1 encounter with Montpellier and were forced to pack their bags following Mihailo Ristic's 20th-minute winner for the hosts.
However, with only one defeat from their last seven top-flight games in 2021, Strasbourg are sitting pretty in 10th and are in with an outside shot at a continental berth, just three points behind sixth-placed Monaco with a game in hand.
In order to maintain their challenge for European competition, Strasbourg must work to improve their consistency on the road as they have only won two of their eight away matches in the 2021-22 top flight, but an opportunity will certainly present itself to make it three from nine here.
Strasbourg eased to a 3-0 win over Metz when the sides locked horns back in September and also prevailed 2-1 at the Stade Saint-Symphorien last term, which represents their only two wins from their last 13 meetings with Les Grenats.
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Team News
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As mentioned, Metz have seven players competing at the Africa Cup of Nations in Farid Boulaya, Alexandre Oukidja, Dylan Bronn, Kiki Kouyate, Pape Sarr, Sofiane Alakouch and Habib Maiga.
The club have also lost Lenny Joseph, Opa Nguette and Papa Ndiaga Yade to COVID-19 infection, while Kevin N'Doram, Manuel Cabit and Matthieu Udol are long-term injury concerns. Vincent Pajot will also serve the second of a two-game ban.
Antonetti's side have moved to sign Jean-Armel Kana-Biyik on a short-term deal, though, and the 32-year-old could be thrown straight in for his debut given their wealth of absentees.
Meanwhile, Strasbourg only have two players out due to AFCON, with Habib Diallo representing Senegal while Alexander Djiku will turn out for Ghana.
Maxime Le Marchand is once again set to miss out due to injury, but Nordine Kandil, Majeed Waris, Anthony Caci, Gerzino Nyamsi and the COVID-affected Jean-Eudes Aholou could all return.
Kevin Gameiro and Ludovic Ajorque will form the strike partnership with Diallo absent, and Frederic Guilbert could be required in the heart of defence this weekend.
Metz possible starting lineup:
Caillard; Niakite, Kana-Biyik, Jemerson; Centonze, Traore, Mbengue, Delaine; De Preville, Gueye; Niane
Strasbourg possible starting lineup:
Sels; Fila, Guilbert, Perrin, Nyamsi, Caci; Sissoko, Lienard, Bellegarde; Thomasson; Ajorque, Gameiro
We say: Metz 1-3 Strasbourg
Metz will still be able to put out something of a familiar-looking side despite their plethora of absent players, but any hopes of them clambering their way to safety are slim to none here.
Strasbourg are not without their own concerns and have not had it all their own way on the road this term, but Stephan's crop should expose the hosts' defensive frailties with a resounding win.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Strasbourg win with a probability of 42.07%. A win for Metz had a probability of 31.32% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Strasbourg win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.71%) and 0-2 (7.57%). The likeliest Metz win was 1-0 (9.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Strasbourg would win this match.
