Always a passionate affair, featuring two southern giants, the result of Monday's Derby del Sole between title contenders Napoli and a resurgent Roma could be of great consequence to both sides.
The clubs convene at Stadio Maradona separated by just two places but also nine points in the Serie A standings, with the Scudetto-chasing hosts holding the upper hand.
Match preview
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Though a tense goalless draw in October's reverse fixture ended a domestic winning run of eight straight games, Napoli's lightning start to the Serie A campaign has helped them keep a significant gap between themselves and Roma, and they remain in the race for a first title in over 30 years.
Ahead of the club's 150th Serie A clash with their Roman rivals, the Partenopei have had to watch on as both Milan and Inter took maximum points from their Good Friday fixtures, so they will kick off at the Maradona in third place, with a five-point deficit to the former.
That opened up due to last week's loss at home to a fearless Fiorentina side in Naples, and despite second-half strikes from Dries Mertens and in-form Victor Osimhen, they fell to a 3-2 defeat against the Tuscan outfit.
Despite their lofty position in the table, eight of Napoli's 10 defeats in all competitions this season have now come on Neapolitan soil, and only once before have they lost more home games in a single campaign.
Three wins on the spin previously had helped Luciano Spalletti's side join Roma as two of the top four teams in terms of points gained during the second half of the season, and only the Milanese clubs have posted more clean sheets in Serie A than the two southern rivals.
However, Napoli have conceded in each of their last eight league games and were heavily also beaten by Barcelona as they crashed out of Europe, so they are more vulnerable to the counter than back in the days of autumnal invincibility.
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Indeed, in recent weeks, Roma have assumed the identity of Serie A's 'unbeatables', and they are the only team in the top flight to avoid defeat in their last 11 games.
Winning on seven occasions during that time - including victory in the derby with Lazio and at home to Atalanta - Jose Mourinho's men have also earned the most points of any side since early January.
They have shown plenty of fighting spirit too, and the latest in a long line of comebacks saw the Giallorossi overturn a deficit to rock-bottom Salernitana last weekend, as they scored twice inside the final 10 minutes to secure a 2-1 victory at Stadio Olimpico.
They now face another Campanian club on Monday, and having kept a clean sheet in six of those 11 unbeaten matches in the league, the controversial methods of Mourinho appear to be bearing fruit in the Eternal City.
Amid some acrimony with the Norwegian champions over the course of four encounters this term - the first being a remarkable 6-1 defeat - the Portuguese tactician even managed to see off his bogey side on Thursday, when Roma swatted Bodo/Glimt aside in the capital.
Tammy Abraham's early strike and a Nicolo Zaniolo hat-trick helped the Giallorossi to a 4-0 win on the night and set up a Europa Conference League semi-final with Leicester City, with the first leg in England to be played later this month.
Between now and then, though, lie a pair of fixtures to truly test the mettle of a much-improved side, as after they tackle Napoli, Roma must visit San Siro, where Mourinho's beloved Inter await.
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Team News
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Though Andre Zambo Anguissa is back from suspension for Napoli and should start in midfield, regular right-back Giovanni Di Lorenzo is not expected to return from injury in time to feature against Roma despite rejoining training this week.
Therefore, young Alessandro Zanoli is favourite to deputise in the hosts' back four once again, while out-of-favour Kevin Malcuit is another option for coach Luciano Spalletti against his former club.
First-choice frontman Victor Osimhen - who has been directly involved in six goals in his last three outings - is set to lead the line, in search of one more to equal his best tally in a European league season: 13 for Lille two years ago.
Osimhen (seven) and Roma's Tammy Abraham (nine) are the two stranieri - or overseas players - to have scored the most Serie A goals in 2022, and the latter will start up front for the visitors despite barely missing a match throughout a long season at home and abroad.
Meanwhile, Sergio Oliveira should return in midfield after being rested on Thursday, and captain Lorenzo Pellegrini is also back in the XI following his suspension against Salernitana.
With a more or less fully fit squad at Jose Mourinho's disposal, even long-term absentee Leonardo Spinazzola has been back on the bench for the last two matches, and one of the stars of Euro 2020 could make another cameo appearance at some stage.
Napoli possible starting lineup:
Ospina; Zanoli, Rrahmani, Koulibaly, Rui; Anguissa, Lobotka, Ruiz; Lozano, Osimhen, Insigne
Roma possible starting lineup:
Patricio; Mancini, Smalling, Ibanez; Karsdorp, Cristante, Oliveira, Zalewski; Pellegrini; Zaniolo, Abraham
We say: Napoli 1-1 Roma
Napoli and Roma have both won two of their last six Serie A clashes in Naples, suggesting there has been little to separate them in recent times.
Those games featured an average of over three goals per game, and as these teams have scored the most times from set pieces this season - the Giallorossi have most from corners (11); the Azzurri are top in terms of free kicks (seven) - it could be such a situation that decides the destiny of this latest meeting.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 43.09%. A win for Roma had a probability of 32.6% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.3%) and 2-0 (6.63%). The likeliest Roma win was 1-2 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
