As merciless as New Zealand were during their qualification period, with no disrespect to Fiji or Vanuatu, Guinea are made of much tougher stuff. On this occasion, we just cannot pick a clear winner and expect the two knockout hopefuls to shake hands on a point apiece, not an awful start for either manager. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea U23s win with a probability of 53.17%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for New Zealand Under-23s had a probability of 22.76%.

The most likely scoreline for a Guinea U23s win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.7%) and 2-0 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.44%), while for a New Zealand Under-23s win it was 0-1 (6.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.

Result
Guinea U23s	Draw	New Zealand Under-23s
53.17% ( -22.57)	24.06% ( 7.88)	22.76% ( 14.69)

Both teams to score 52.26% (

11.53)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.07% (

-4.38)

48.93% (

4.38)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.98% (

-4.1)

71.02% (

4.1)

Guinea U23s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.66% (

-8.3)

18.34% (

8.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.55% (

-16.34)

49.45% (

16.34)

New Zealand Under-23s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64% (

18.72)

36% (

-18.72)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.22% (

14.94)

72.77% (

-14.93)

Score Analysis

Guinea U23s 53.16%

New Zealand Under-23s 22.76%

Draw 24.06%

Guinea U23s	Draw	New Zealand Under-23s
1-0 @ 11.19% ( -1.43) 2-1 @ 9.7% ( 0.95) 2-0 @ 9.5% ( -5.01) 3-1 @ 5.49% ( -1.22) 3-0 @ 5.37% ( -5.75) 3-2 @ 2.8% ( 0.78) 4-1 @ 2.33% ( -1.53) 4-0 @ 2.28% ( -4.12) 4-2 @ 1.19% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.33% Total : 53.16%	1-1 @ 11.44% ( 3.83) 0-0 @ 6.6% ( 1.11) 2-2 @ 4.96% ( 2.32) 3-3 @ 0.95% ( 0.55) Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.06%	0-1 @ 6.75% ( 3.43) 1-2 @ 5.85% ( 3.55) 0-2 @ 3.45% ( 2.45) 1-3 @ 1.99% ( 1.53) 2-3 @ 1.69% ( 1.16) 0-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.97) Other @ 1.87% Total : 22.76%