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AFC World Cup qualifying permutations: Who can reach Qatar?

Sports Mole looks at the World Cup qualifying permutations for the AFC, with Saudi Arabia, Japan and Australia involved in a three-way battle for a spot in Qatar.

The AFC World Cup qualifying campaign comes to an end this month, with a thrilling end in store for those still in the running.

Just two games remain in the section, and Group B is where the drama looks set to lie as Saudi Arabia, Japan and Australia find themselves in a three-way battle for two automatic qualifying spots.

To make the upcoming international break all the more enticing, Australia face both Japan and Saudi Arabia in their final two games, meaning that it is all still to play for in the race for a ticket to the 2022 World Cup.

There is a playoff spot still up for grabs in Group A too, where Iran and Saudi Arabia have already sealed qualification.

Here, Sports Mole looks at the state of play in the AFC section heading into the home straight.

Saudi Arabia's Feras Al Brikan celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on January 27, 2022© Reuters



Who plays who on March 24?

The first round of qualifying games during the current international break will take place on Thursday, March 24.

Here are the games scheduled for March 24:

GROUP A

South Korea vs. Iran
Iraq vs. United Arab Emirates
Lebanon vs. Syria

GROUP B

Australia vs. Japan
China vs. Saudi Arabia
Vietnam vs. Oman



Who has already qualified?

IRAN (GROUP A)

Iran's Saman Ghoddos and Hossein Kanani celebrate after qualifying for the World Cup on January 27, 2022© Reuters

Iran's spot at a third successive World Cup has already been secured, with them dropping just two points in Group A to sit a whopping 13 clear of third place with two games remaining.

Top spot is still up for grabs, though, and Iran boast a two-point lead over South Korea heading into Thursday's showdown between the two sides in Seoul.

Anything other than defeat for Iran would leave them then just needing to beat Lebanon on the final matchday to secure top spot.

SOUTH KOREA (GROUP A)

South Korea's Cho Gue-Sung celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on January 27, 2022© Reuters

Like Iran, South Korea have already booked their ticket to Qatar, although they will now have their sights set on top spot with home advantage in Thursday's meeting with Iran.

Korea are 11 points clear of third-placed UAE, whom they will face in their final match of the section after hosting Iran.

Regardless of what happens in those two games, though, Paulo Bento's side will be appearing at a 10th successive World Cup tournament this year.



Who can qualify on March 24?

SAUDI ARABIA (GROUP B)

Saudi Arabia coach Herve Renard on February 1, 2022© Reuters

Saudi Arabia currently sit in pole position in Group B with 19 points from their eight games - a one-point lead over Japan and crucially a four-point lead over Australia.

Victory for Saudi Arabia away to China would therefore confirm their place at the 2022 World Cup with a game to spare, keeping them at least four points ahead of the playoff spot with only three points left to play for.

Even a draw could be enough for Herve Renard's side to secure their tickets should Australia fail to beat Japan, but defeat in China could leave the Saudis facing a winner-takes-all showdown with Australia on the final matchday.

JAPAN (GROUP B)

Japan's Takumi Minamino celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on February 1, 2022© Reuters

The standout fixture on March 24 is Australia vs. Japan in Sydney - a match which could settle the qualifying campaign before it gets to the final matchday.

Victory for Japan would see them seal their place at this winter's tournament - a seventh successive World Cup - before they host Vietnam in their final game of the section.

A draw would leave things in their own hands heading into the final game, but defeat would see them drop out of the two automatic qualification places and needing results on the final matchday to go their way if they are to qualify automatically.



Who else can still qualify?

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES (GROUP A)

United Arab Emirates' Yahya Al Ghassani celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates on January 27, 2022© Reuters

UAE cannot qualify for the World Cup itself on Thursday, but they could wrap up a playoff spot if they beat Iraq and Lebanon fail to beat Syria.

The United Arab Emirates have only qualified once before, but sit in a strong position in Group A with a three-point lead over fourth-placed Lebanon.

However, defeat for UAE coupled with a win for Lebanon would see it all go down the final day, when UAE face South Korea and Lebanon face Iran.

LEBANON (GROUP A)

Lebanon's Maher Sabra celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on February 1, 2022© Reuters

Lebanon's three-point deficit to UAE means that the odds are against them to secure the playoff spot in Group B, and any dropped points against Syria on Thursday could prove fatal for their chances.

Victory by a big enough margin, however, could lift them up into third place should UAE lose to Iraq, although the margin for error is very slim for Lebanon.

The fact that Lebanon also face leaders Iran away from home on the final matchday makes Thursday's match all the more important.

IRAQ (GROUP A)

Iraq's Ayman Hussein celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on February 1, 2022© Reuters

Iraq still have an outside chance of qualifying for Qatar themselves, although they would need to win both of their remaining games and hope other results go their way.

A win over UAE could close the gap on third place to just one point should Lebanon also lose, and Iraq could then take advantage of their two rivals having difficult final matches to steal in.

However, Iraq are yet to win a single game in qualifying so far, with five draws from eight games accounting for their points tally so far.

AUSTRALIA (GROUP B)

Like Saudi Arabia and Japan, Australia are already guaranteed at least a playoff spot in Group B, but the fact that they take on both of their main rivals in the final two games means that they are still very much in the running.

Things are not in their hands as they bid for a fifth successive World Cup, though, and even victories over both Japan and Saudi Arabia might not be enough to book their place in Qatar should Saudi Arabia beat China and then Japan beat Vietnam by a big enough margin to wipe out Australia's goal difference advantage.

Defeat against Japan would condemn them to third place with a game to spare, while a draw would just about keep them in contention.



Who is already out of the running?

SYRIA (GROUP A)

The only team in Group A with nothing to fight for heading into the final two games is Syria, who have taken just two points from their eight outings so far to sit seven adrift of third place.

OMAN (GROUP B)

Oman have taken eight points from their eight games, leaving them seven adrift of Australia with just six points left to fight for.

CHINA (GROUP B)

China could still have a say in the qualification race when they host Saudi Arabia, but their own hopes are already over having taken only five points from their eight outings.

VIETNAM (GROUP B)

Like China, Vietnam could also still play a big role, although with only three points to their name and seven defeats from eight outings, Saudi Arabia and Australia will not count on Japan dropping points to them on the final matchday.


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