Armenia host neighbours Georgia in Yerevan on Thursday evening, as the two nations fight for the right to play in league B of the UEFA Nations League.
The hosts will begin life under the management of John van 't Schip, after the Dutchman was appointed head coach of the nation last month.
Match preview
© Iconsport
Armenia qualified for the playoffs after finishing second in Group C4, well behind eventual winners North Macedonia.
Indeed, North Macedonia won the group by nine points, more than any of the other teams in the group managed overall.
Despite Blagoja Milevski's side dominating the group, Armenia managed to secure second position with seven points from six matches.
Former head coach Oleksandr Petrakov was dismissed in October following two defeats in their opening four matches in the Nations League.
Suren Chakhalyan took charge for the final two games of the group stage, and despite losing to the Faroe Islands under his guidance, their victory over Latvia in the final group match was enough to book their place in the promotion playoffs.
For Armenia to improve under their new boss, they will need to perform better at home, with Havakakan winning just three of their last 12 matches on home soil.
Scoring goals also proved an issue for the hosts throughout the group, as Armenia failed to score in half of their matches, and they were outscored by nine goals to eight by their opponents, with six of their goals coming in two matches against Latvia.
© Imago
Meanwhile, the visitors made a flying start to their Nations League campaign, with a 4-1 win against the Czech Republic followed by a 1-0 win away to Albania to make it back-to-back victories to begin the group stage.
However, three defeats from their final four matches left Willy Sagnol's men in third in Group B1, only finishing above bottom-placed Albania on goal difference.
Although they could consider themselves fortunate to be in a survival playoff, Georgia may also feel as though they were unlucky not to be in a promotion playoff at the same time.
The Georgians finished just one point behind Ukraine, in what was one of the most competitive groups in the Nations League.
Last year can certainly be considered a big year of progress for the Georgian national team, as they exceeded all expectations by getting out of the group at Euro 2024, finishing third and beating 2016 winners Portugal in Group F of the tournament.
They were beaten by eventual tournament winners Spain in the knockouts, but they certainly did not disgrace themselves at their first major tournament.
Having proven they are capable of mixing it with some of the big boys in Europe, Georgia's focus for now will be remaining in League B of the Nations League.
Historically, the visitors have had the better of the meetings between the two sides, but they have not beaten Armenia since a 2-1 triumph in a friendly between the two nations back in February 2011.
The two countries faced off in the Nations League back in 2020, with Georgia earning a 2-2 draw in Armenia, before the Armenians secured a 2-1 victory in the return fixture a month later.
Sagnol's side have made a lot of progress in the five years since, but Armenia will certainly be hopeful that they can give themselves a lead to protect, ahead of the second leg of the playoff at the weekend.
Team News
© Imago
Armenia will not have Eduard Spertsyan, Hovhannes Harutyunyan and Norberto Briasco available due to injury.
Additionally, Lucas Zelarayan is unavailable for the hosts due to family reasons.
FC Urartu forward Nicholas Kaloukian could earn his first cap for Armenia after receiving his first call-up to the senior team.
Meanwhile, Sagnol could hand a first cap to Luka Latsabidze, who has only represented Georgia at youth level up until now.
Elsewhere, Guram Kashia and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia are suspended for this clash due to an accumulation of yellow cards throughout the competition.
Armenia possible starting lineup:
Cancarevic; Tiknizyan, Muradyan, Haroyan, Hovhannisyan; Manvelyan, Udo, Iwu; Bichakhchyan, Ranos, Serobyan
Georgia possible starting lineup:
Mamardashvili; Lochoshvili, Dvali, Kashia, Goglichidze, Kakabadze; Kochorashvili, Kiteishvili, Chakvetadze; Mikautadze, Zivzivadze
We say: Armenia 1-2 Georgia
Georgia have shown that they are capable of performing against top opposition, both in the European Championship and in their Nations League campaign.
Armenia can consider themselves somewhat fortunate to be in a promotion playoff, but there is an element of unpredictability about them, given that they have a new head coach.
We think that this match will be a close one, and that Georgia will take an advantage with them into the return leg at the weekend, and 2-1 should be enough for them to see the job through on Sunday.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Tom Humphrey
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