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Preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Frances Tiafoe - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Friday's Wimbledon third-round match between Carlos Alcaraz and Frances Tiafoe, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Two years after their epic US Open semi-final five-setter, Carlos Alcaraz and Frances Tiafoe battle in Friday's Wimbledon third-round match.

The American already threw down the gauntlet after his second-round win over Borna Coric, with the all-smiles defending champion accepting the challenge after getting past Aleksandar Vukic on No. 1 Court.


Match preview

Carlos Alcaraz reacts at Wimbledon on July 3, 2024© Reuters

If Jannik Sinner's second-round match against countryman Matteo Berrettini was the pick of the previous round's action, then Alcaraz and Tiafoe doing battle in round three undoubtedly is the most fascinating match-up in the men's singles draw in the third.

The Spaniard defeated Tiafoe in a thrilling five-set match en route to clinching a maiden Grand Slam at the US Open in 2022, and he aims for another victory over the world No. 29.

While he is yet to drop a set in his title defence, Alcaraz must avoid the dip that nearly cost him the first in his eventual 7-6 (5), 6-2, 6-2 win over Vukic on day three at the All England Club.

The No. 3 seed opened up a 5-2 lead but lost the next four games to the Australian, who then served for the set at 6-5 before the three-time Slam champion recovered to force a tie-break.

Such intermittent drop-offs are typical with Alcaraz, and they must be kept to a bare minimum against the undoubted menace of his American opponent on Friday.

Frances Tiafoe reacts at Wimbledon on July 1, 2024© Reuters

Tiafoe's tournament could have ended prematurely in the first round, but the three-time tour-level champion fought back from two sets down to claim a 6-7(5), 2-6, 6-1, 6-3, 6-3 triumph over Matteo Arnaldi.

It was the first time the American had recovered from losing the opening two sets, and Wednesday's masterful performance to defeat Coric 7-6(5), 6-1, 6-3 showed his keenness to avoid a repeat, with the 26-year-old hitting several eye-catching winners on the move in his second round win.

Facing Alcaraz for the first time since the pair's titanic semi-final in his home tournament undoubtedly means much to the world No. 29, who issued a challenge to one of the pre-Wimbledon favourites after eliminating the Croatian.

While Tiafoe may have caused a stir with recent comments that appeared to refer to several players on the ATP Tour as clowns, he poses a genuine threat to Alcaraz's title defence.

After waiting nearly two years, the American gets another shot at arguably the most complete talent on Tour, and Friday's match should live up to the hype.


Tournament so far

Carlos Alcaraz:

First round: vs. Mark Lajal 7-6[3] 7-5 6-2
Second round: vs. Aleksandar Vukic 7-6[5] 6-2 6-2

Frances Tiafoe:

First round: vs. Matteo Arnaldi 6-7[5] 2-6 6-1 6-3 6-3
Second round: vs. Borna Coric 7-6[5] 6-1 6-3


Head To Head

Barcelona (2021) - Round of 64: Tiafoe 6-4 7-6[2]

US Open (2022) - Semi-final: Alcaraz 6-7[6] 6-3 6-1 6-7[5] 6-3

Both players meet on grass for the first time on Tour, having previously battled on clay and hard courts.

Tiafoe claimed a win at the ATP 500 match in Barcelona in 2021, clinching a 6-4, 7-6(2) win over the then-teenager, but the Spaniard levelled their head-to-head with the wildly exciting US Open semi-final the following year.

The American claiming the first set was met with a strong response from Alcaraz, who notched the second and third before the home hope levelled the match in a fourth-set tie-break.

While both players traded early breaks in the decisive fifth set, the Spaniard claimed further advantages in the fifth and ninth games to clinch the final set 6-3, advancing to the 2022 US Open final at Tiafoe's expense.

Alcaraz has claimed two more Slams since, including last year's Wimbledon, and he aims to avoid exiting early to Tiafoe.

The 21-year-old has won 14 titles on Tour to the American's three, with two coming in 2024 — at Indian Wells and Roland Garros — while Tiafoe is yet to clinch a title this season, notably unable to successfully defend his Stuttgart title weeks back after losing in the quarter-finals to eventual champion Jack Draper.


SM words green background

We say: Alcaraz to win in four sets

Alcaraz is not expected to have it easy against the American, who seems motivated to right the perceived wrongs of that 2022 US Open semi-final loss.

The Spaniard's tendency to lose focus means Tiafoe should claim a set in this one — possibly even two to force another five-setter — but we are backing the No. 3 seed to advance in four.

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