MX23RW : Wednesday, December 11 00:56:58| >> :600:3110641:3110641:

Preview: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jasmine Paolini - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Monday's WTA Finals round-robin match between Aryna Sabalenka and Jasmine Paolini, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Aryna Sabalenka could take another step towards the year-end No. 1 ranking when she takes on Jasmine Paolini at the WTA Finals on Monday.

The current top-ranked player notched a straight-set success in her first round-robin match against Qinwen Zheng, while the Italian debutant beat the returning Elena Rybakina in two.


Match preview

Aryna Sabalenka pictured on October 12, 2024© Imago

Sabalenka may be unaware of the surfeit of permutations required to see her finish as the year-end No. 1, but the Belarusian must know she needs two more round-robin triumphs to pip Iga Swiatek to the post.

She began her Finals in Riyadh with another victory in two sets against Zheng (6-3, 6-4), improving to 5-0 against the Chinese player, who entered the tournament in fine form following her recent triumph in Tokyo.

With an astonishing 21-1 record heading into her second match in Saudi Arabia, the tour's in-form player does not seem too keen on letting up before a fifth meeting with Paolini.

Sabalenka knows winning the year-end event will seal the No. 1 spot, but she could wrap that up by extending her ongoing run to 23-1, an outcome that will not be lost on her.

Jasmine Paolini reacts at the Wuhan Open on October 11, 2024© Imago

Paolini was favoured to beat Rybakina in two sets, and the two-time 2024 Majors finalist outdid the rusty Kazakhstani 7-6(5), 6-4, sealing success in her first match at the event.

While Italian was outdone for winners against Rybakina (12-27), the returning player's staggeringly high 56 unforced errors undermined any pressure she could put the 28-year-old under.

The upshot of Paolini's success means she could seal qualification by beating Sabalenka in Monday's match and clinching top spot is feasible if the Kazakhstani defeats Zheng in the Purple Group's earlier match.

While she would need to end the world No. 1's ongoing six-match winning streak for that to happen, the second-oldest debuting woman will back herself to stun the favourite after an impressive year.


Tournament so far

Aryna Sabalenka:

Round Robin: vs. Qinwen Zheng 6-3 6-4

Jasmine Paolini:

Round Robin: vs. Elena Rybakina 7-6(5) 6-4


Head To Head

Beijing (2023) - Round of 16: Sabalenka 6-4 7-6(4)

Indian Wells (2022) - Round of 64: Paolini 2-6 6-3 6-3

Linz (2020) - Round of 32: Sabalenka 6-4 6-4

Ilkley (2017) - Round of 32: Paolini 4-6 7-5 7-6(2)

Sabalenka and Paolini have split previous meetings 2-2 heading into their fifth in Riyadh.

The Italian's two victories have come after losing the opening set, highlighting her doggedness and inclination to react to setbacks, while the world No. 1's triumphs have come in two.

The Belarusian seeks an 11th triumph over a top-10 player this season — no player has more than Sabalenka's 10 in 2024 — underlining her adeptness against elite opponents.


SM words green background

We say: Sabalenka to win in two sets

Sabalenka enters Monday's match with an impressive record: she has ten victories against top-10 opponents this season and has defeated the other seven players in Riyadh a combined 11 times, more than any other competitor.

Although Paolini packs a punch when in full flow, we expect the top-ranked player to take a positive step towards clinching the year-end No. 1 ranking.

ID:557211:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect5458:
Written by
Anthony Brown

Previews by email

Click here to get Sports Mole's daily email of previews and predictions for every major game!


Collect / Create New Data
Share this article now:
Katie Boulter pictured on August 9, 2024
Read Next:
"You absolutely killed me!": Boulter humbled in Hong Kong but hits new career high
>
rhs 2.0
Today's games header


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!