Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ilves win with a probability of 52.1%. A win for KTP had a probability of 24.5% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ilves win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.63%) and 2-0 (8.52%). The likeliest KTP win was 1-2 (6.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ilves would win this match.