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Arminia Bielefeld logos
Bundesliga | Gameweek 28
Apr 9, 2021 at 7.30pm UK
Bielefelder Alm
Freiburg logo

Arminia Bielefeld
1 - 0
Freiburg

Santamaria (68' og.)
Klos (56'), Voglsammer (58'), de Medina (90+3')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Santamaria (56'), Schmid (85')

Preview: Arminia Bielefeld vs. Freiburg - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's Bundesliga clash between Arminia Bielefeld and Freiburg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Arminia Bielefeld take on Freiburg in the Bundesliga on Friday, with the hosts able to move outside of the relegation zone with a victory.

The visitors, meanwhile, dropped into the bottom half last weekend, but can move up to seventh place by beating their forthcoming opponents.


Match preview

Arminia Bielefeld's Manuel Prietl celebrates their first goal against Bayern Munich in October 2020© Reuters

Frank Kramer continued his steady start since replacing Uwe Neuhaus as Arminia's manager last month by guiding his side to their fifth point in five matches under his tutelage with a 1-1 draw at relegation rivals Mainz 05 on Saturday.

Mainz, who also appointed a new manager in the shape of Bo Svensson in January, had won their previous two matches to leapfrog Arminia in the table, so Kramer's side could not afford to lose further ground on them.

Svensson's side looked the more dangerous in the opening 45 minutes, with Leandro Barreiro twice denied from close range, although Andreas Voglsammer went close with a leaping header.

Former Swansea City defender Mike van der Hoorn clumsily tripped up Jonathan Burkhardt 10 minutes into the second half to allow Daniel Brosinski to open the scoring from the penalty spot, but Voglsammer struck from range to claim a crucial point for Arminia, which kept them within two points of safety.

Freiburg coach Christian Streich pictured on February 20, 2021© Reuters

Freiburg have somewhat loftier aspirations this season having performed above expectations, with seventh place - and a potential Europa League qualification spot as a result, depending on which side wins the DFB-Pokal - still in their sights despite a damaging 2-1 defeat at Borussia Monchengladbach last time out.

Marco Rose's side had lost seven successive matches prior to their morale boosting 3-0 win at Schalke 04 prior to the international break, so Christian Streich must have been cursing his side's luck - or lack thereof - regarding the timing of the fixture.

However, an incisive counter-attack saw Roland Sallai open the scoring after 10 minutes to strike in two successive Bundesliga matches for the first time in his career.

Lucas Holer looked to have doubled the visitors' lead from close range, but replays showed that Yann Sommer marginally prevented the whole ball from crossing the line with a superb reflex save with his outstretched foot.

The complexion of the match changed after the break, with Marcus Thuram's deflected effort leaving Florian Muller no chance, before the France forward showed blistering pace to race past Philipp Lienhart and around Muller to slot home his sixth strike of the season, helping Gladbach move above Freiburg into the top half of the table.

Streich's side's destiny very much remains in their own hands, though, with seven matches still remaining.

Arminia Bielefeld Bundesliga form:
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D

Freiburg Bundesliga form:
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L



Team News

Freiburg duo Philipp Lienhart and Dominique Heintz pictured on November 7, 2020© Reuters

Arminia will be without Arne Maier and Sven Schipplock until at least the end of April due to back and hand injuries respectively.

With his side desperately needing a victory, Kramer may consider restoring Sergio Cordova or club legend Fabian Klos in attack in place of the injured Maier, with Michel Vlap potentially dropping deeper as a result.

Freiburg, meanwhile, have a mini-crisis in terms of attackers available to travel to Bielefeld, with Holer and Ermedin Demirovic both suspended after receiving their fifth cautions of the season against Gladbach.

Vincenzo Grifo will also stay at home having tested positive for COVID-19 while on international duty with Italy, while Jeong Woo-yeong is likely to miss the rest of the season with a knee injury.

Nils Petersen will almost certainly make his 10th league start of the season, then, with Kwon Chang-hoon and Guus Til vying for a start alongside him.

Lukas Kubler should be fit to return at right-back having been named among the substitutes, potentially freeing Jonathan Schmid to play in a more familiar role higher up the pitch.

Arminia Bielefeld possible starting lineup:
Ortega; Brunner, Van Der Hoorn, Nilsson, Lucoqui; Doan, Vlap, Prietl, Okugawa; Klos, Voglsammer

Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Muller; Kubler, Lienhart, Gulde, Gunter; Schmid, Santamaria, Hofler, Sallai; Petersen, Til


SM words green background

We say: Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 Freiburg

With Freiburg missing key personnel in attack, Arminia must seize the initiative here in a potentially pivotal match for them in terms of surviving relegation.

Kramer's side struggle to score goals, though, so may require a rare clean sheet if they are to gain three points and move outside of the relegation places in the process.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a draw or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Draw/Away:data



ID:442219:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect10897:

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 43.56%. A win for Arminia Bielefeld had a probability of 29.63% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.79%) and 0-2 (8.06%). The likeliest Arminia Bielefeld win was 1-0 (9.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Arminia Bielefeld vs Freiburg

Arminia Bielefeld
33.7%
Draw
20.4%
Freiburg
45.9%
98
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