The newest side to Major League Soccer will make their first trip to Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday, as Charlotte Independence search for their first points in franchise history when they battle Atlanta United.
After scoring three times to win their opening fixture, it was a role reversal for The Five Stripes last weekend, as they dropped a 3-0 decision to the Colorado Rapids, while a raucous crowd in North Carolina was not enough for Charlotte, who were edged 1-0 by the Los Angeles Galaxy.
Match preview
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Playing in the cold climate of Colorado seemed to get the better of Atlanta last Saturday, as they struggled to find a way in behind the channels against the well-structured Burgundy Boys.
Since Gonzalo Pineda took charge of The Five Stripes in 2021, this has been a team that like to maintain possession, with 64% of it at Dick's Sporting Goods Park.
In this league, one lapse in concentration can make the difference between winning and losing and Atlanta learned that the hard way a week ago.
Pineda admitted afterwards that his players switched off in the first few minutes of the second half as the Rapids made them pay with a goal from Jonathan Lewis, which completely changed the complexion of that match.
Atlanta have made the most of their home-field advantage of late, unbeaten in their last eight fixtures played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium dating back to 2021.
It should be noted that Pineda is missing many players through injury or visa issues, and while they have played aggressively, intent on attacking, the continuity has not always been there thus far.
This weekend will be about correcting their mistakes made last week, as they aim for an excellent bounce-back performance, something that they have been able to do successfully in recent memory, winning all three of their games last year under Pineda following a defeat.
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The fans in Charlotte indeed came out in full force on Saturday to cheer on their side, who kept the Galaxy at bay for 77 minutes before Efrain Alvarez broke their hearts.
Their opening game at Bank of America Stadium was a sight to see as they broke the largest attendance record in MLS history in what was also the second-highest attended match worldwide this year, with over 74,000 people watching the festivities.
Having that kind of support for their home games could provide Miguel Angel Ramirez and his team with a tremendous advantage moving forward, but this side will need more than that to be successful in their inaugural campaign.
One noticeable improvement from their match last weekend to their defeat at DC United (3-0), according to Ramirez, was their ability to remain physically fit, after looking exhausted in the second half of their opening fixture.
When your team consists of several new faces taken from other clubs or newcomers recently drafted, developing chemistry can take some time, and as spirited as this team have been, the cohesion within this group seems to be lacking at the moment.
Ramirez admits that there may be some tough times ahead and that his players might need to sustain their share of pressure before the youngsters learn to play at an elite level, while also being more aggressive with the ball.
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Team News
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Josef Martinez led The Five Stripes in goals last season with 12 but has yet to find the back of the net in the opening two games of this campaign, although he does lead them in assists with two, one more than Marcelino Moreno.
Emerson Hyndman is recovering from a torn ACL, Machop Chol and Jake Mulraney have leg injuries and Luiz Araujo continues to suffer from a hamstring problem.
Several players for Atlanta are out due to visa problems, including Franco Ibarra, Thiago Almada and Santiago Sosa, while Miles Robinson will not be available after receiving two yellow cards last weekend.
Anton Walkes might not be able to make his return to Atlanta, as the former Five Stripes defender and midfielder, who was taken in the expansion draft by Charlotte, has an issue with his lower left leg, while Vinicius Mello could miss once again due to a foot injury.
Goalkeeper Kristijan Kahlina was a busy man last weekend as the Croatian stopped five of the six shots he faced in the defeat versus LA, while Ramirez made one change to his starting 11 for that match, with Karol Swiderski replacing McKinze Gaines.
This expansion side is reportedly on the verge of signing Derby County winger Kamil Jozwiak, as the 23-year-old from Poland has a goal and four assists in 58 appearances under manager Wayne Rooney.
Charlotte made a move this week, acquiring midfielder Derrick Jones from the Houston Dynamo along with $50,000 in General Allocation Money (GAM) in exchange for $250,000 GAM and 20% in future transfer fee money.
Atlanta United possible starting lineup:
Guzan; Gutman, DeJohn, A. Franco, Hernandez; Moreno, Campbell, Rossetto; Dwyer, Martinez, Araujo
Charlotte Independence possible starting lineup:
Kahlina; Corujo, Makoun, Fuchs; Lindsey, Ruiz, Bronico, Ortiz, Mora; Rios, Reyna
We say: Atlanta United 2-1 Charlotte Independence
Charlotte showed a lot of poise last week against a potent LA Galaxy side, but that was with thousands of fans cheering them on, which will not be the case on Sunday.
The Five Stripes have had two very different performances thus far, but they are a strong home side who know what it takes to penetrate defensive units.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 72.99%. A draw had a probability of 17.1% and a win for Charlotte FC had a probability of 9.89%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.58%) and 3-0 (10%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.14%), while for a Charlotte FC win it was 0-1 (3.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Atlanta United in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Atlanta United.
