Austin FC have a chance to foil the first-place aspirations of Sporting Kansas City when they host the Wizards in their final home fixture this year at Q2 Stadium on Wednesday.
The Verde-and-Black conceded with 10 minutes remaining over the weekend, losing 2-1 to Dallas, while KC missed an opportunity to widen their lead atop the Western Conference standings, dropping a 2-1 decision to Minnesota United.
Match preview
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After helping them to a Western Conference championship in 2004 as a player, Austin manager Josh Wolff can severely hamper his former club's chances of finishing first heading into the postseason, when his players take to the field to face KC in midweek.
His expansion side came out flying early on against the Toros last Saturday, going ahead after 36 minutes, although that lead lasted for only two minutes as the Verde-and-Black were out of their comfort zone for much of the second half.
A controversial red card decision seemed to change the complexion of that encounter dramatically as Hector Jimenez reached out and grabbed Paxton Pomykal just slightly, taking away what could have been a breakaway, but in fairness, the contact was minimal.
That defeat gave this team their first real taste of what it is like to come close to clutching a trophy and failing, although the Copa Tejas is only for bragging rights between the MLS teams in Texas.
Austin are likely to end the year with the fewest goals in MLS, having found the back of the net only 32 times in 2021, but they have done a much better job of scoring in front of their home fans, with multiple goals in three of their last four fixtures.
Even though their playoff hopes were dashed weeks ago, they still have an opportunity to finish the season strong, and if they can capture their final two encounters of the year, it would mean that they would not finish in last place in the Western Conference.
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It is back to the drawing board for Peter Vermes and his Sporting side, who missed an opportunity to move three points clear of the Seattle Sounders on Sunday.
Their intensity against the Loons was lacking for long stretches, and it was evident which side needed the three points badly as KC lacked energy in the second half.
First place is still up for grabs for them and so are a couple of club records, as a ninth win on the road this week would be the most ever for this team in the regular season and if they can come out victorious in their final two fixtures before the playoffs begin, it would give them 64 points, which is one more than their current record set in 2012.
This team are just as clinical in front of goal at home as they are on the road, scoring 25 times this year outside of Children's Mercy Park, with an average goal per match rate of 1.6, the second-highest in MLS.
When KC draw first blood, it is usually curtains for the opposition, but on Sunday, we saw them come away without a point when scoring first for only the third time all year, and the first time since a 2-1 defeat to the Portland Timbers on June 19.
This will be their first-ever visit to Austin, and in their previous two meetings against this expansion side, Kansas City have found it difficult to contend with this stingy and committed team, conceding an early first-half goal both times and having to fight back with late goals in a 1-1 draw and a 2-1 win.
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Team News
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The expulsion of Hector Jimenez ruined what was a momentous night for the former Columbus Crew defender who earned his 200th MLS cap, becoming the third player in team history to reach that milestone alongside Matt Besler and Diego Fagundez.
Alexander Ring picked up his third assist of the year on the Fagundez goal on Saturday, putting him into a tie for the team lead with Cecilio Dominguez, Jared Stroud and Sebastian Driussi.
Rodney Redes, Ulises Segura and Aaron Schoenfeld are out with left knee injuries, Matt Besler has a concussion, Ben Sweat has an ACL issue and Danny Hoesen will likely miss the remainder of the year because of a problem with his left hip.
Johnny Russell saw his goalscoring streak come to an end at eight games, but the Kansas City striker continues to contribute, notching his eighth assist on Sunday, moving him into the team lead, ahead of Daniel Salloi, who came on as a substitute after missing several games previously with an ankle injury.
Luis Martins remains the only player to see the field in every Wizards encounter this year, making his 32nd appearance this past weekend, while Khiry Shelton scored his third of the season, moving ahead of Cameron Duke, Jaylin Lindsey and former midfielder Gianluca Busio in that department.
Felipe Hernandez is still suspended, Lindsey has a hamstring issue and Alan Pulido remains sidelined due to a knee injury.
Austin FC possible starting lineup:
Stuver; Lima, Romana, Cascante, Gallagher; Berhalter, Ring; Dominguez, Driussi, Fagundez; Djitte
Sporting Kansas City possible starting lineup:
Melia; Martins, Fontas, llie, Zusi; Barber, Walter, Kinda; Shelton, Salloi, Russell
We say: Austin FC 1-2 Sporting Kansas City
In recent weeks, the Verde-and-Black have shown a lot of resolve and fight, with four of their last five contests decided by a single goal.
We have mentioned this several times before, but it bears repeating, the Wizards have never lost consecutive matches all year, and we do not expect them to do so on Wednesday, especially with an additional offensive threat in Salloi back in the fold.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 43.57%. A win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 32.94% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.32%) and 2-0 (6.2%). The likeliest Sporting Kansas City win was 1-2 (7.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.59%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Austin FC would win this match.
