UEFA Conference League

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Europa Conference League | Last 16 | 2nd Leg

Mar 17, 2022 at 5.45pm UK

St. Jakob-Park

Basel
1 - 2
Marseille

(Marseille win 4-2 on aggregate)

Ndoye (63')
Chalov (26'), Burger (34'), Ndoye (76'), Tavares (90+4')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Under (74'), Rongier (90+3')
Sampaoli (38'), Peres (70'), Mandanda (86'), Balerdi (90+4'), Gerson (90+5')

Preview: Basel vs. Marseille - prediction, team news, lineups

By Matthew Wilkinson, Reporter | 15 March 2022

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Basel and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Marseille travel to St Jakob-Park on Thursday night in order to face Basel in the Europa Conference League round-of-16 match, with this being the second leg.

The French outfit have a 2-1 lead to defend in this match, with both teams heading into this game on the back of victories in their respective leagues.

Match preview

Basel's Sebastiano Esposito celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on March 10, 2022 © Reuters

Basel will have to produce a comeback if they want to continue playing in the Europa Conference League this season, as they head into this match behind 2-1.

It was the first time they have been defeated in Europe this season, with a brace from Arkadiusz Milik proving to be enough for Marseille, although Sebastiano Esposito scored a crucial goal in the second half to keep the tie close.

Guille Abascal's team have been dominant at home this season in the competition, winning all three of their group games in dominant fashion, scoring 10 times within them.

Basel immediately got themselves back to winning ways at the weekend, defeating Servette 2-0 with goals from Liam Chipperfield and Adam Szalai, which will have put the confidence straight back into the group.

The squad have only been defeated three times in the league overall, currently sitting in second place as they push for the title, and with their impressive performances and consistency, they will believe that a win here is possible.

Marseille's Gerson celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on March 13, 2022 © Reuters

Marseille head into Thursday on the back of a five-match undefeated streak in all competitions, which will have injected plenty of confidence into the squad at the moment.

In Europe, the French team have had to work a little harder than their opponents, going through the knockout round before this, but that has only provided them with further experience.

Jorge Sampaoli's team dominated the previous stage, winning 6-1 over the two games, and they shall be hoping to follow suit within this upcoming fixture in an attempt to reach the quarter-finals.

Marseille followed up their victory with an impressive 4-1 in Ligue 1 against Brest, with goals from Gerson, Milik, Amine Harit and Cengiz Under, which showcases the attacking qualities that the team have.

The squad will now want to follow that up in order to progress into the next round, and continue their current run in all competitions.

Basel Europa Conference League form:

Basel form (all competitions):

Marseille Europa Conference League form:

Marseille form (all competitions):

Team News

Marseille coach Jorge Sampaoli during the match on March 10, 2022 © Reuters

Andrea Padula and Raoul Petretta are both unavailable for Basel heading into this match due to injury, which will stretch the team on Thursday.

There are also concerns over Emmanuel Essiam and Michael Lang as well, with each man potentially not being able to compete in this match as well.

That is a benefit that Marseille will have, as they do not have any fitness issues to worry about, which will allow the club to field the strongest XI possible.

The only player that the French outfit will be without is Dimitri Payet, as the midfielder is currently suspended, which will force at least one change for them.

Basel possible starting lineup:
Lindner; Tavares, Frei, Pelmard, Katterbach; Kasami, Burger; Ndoye, Esposito, Fernandes; Szalai

Marseille possible starting lineup:
Mandanda; Rongier, Saliba, Caleta-Car, Kolasinac; Guendouzi, Kamara, Gerson; Under, Harit, Milik

SM words green background

We say: Basel 0-1 Marseille

Marseille have been dominant as of late, and due to the fact they have fewer injury concerns, and that does make them the favourites on Thursday, even away from home.

The hosts will certainly provide a stern test within this match, but the visitors do just have an edge in terms of quality that should help them.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 37.71%. A win for Basel had a probability of 33.72% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.81%) and 0-2 (7.14%). The likeliest Basel win was 1-0 (11.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.