Bragantino will try to punch their ticket into the semi-finals of the Copa Sudamericana on Tuesday when they host Rosario Central in the second leg of that tie from Estadio Nabi Abi Chedid Stadium.
Braga won the opening match between these two sides 4-3, handing Canalla their first home defeat of this competition.
Match preview
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After being shut out in two of their previous three league fixtures heading into the first leg of this quarter-final tie, Massa Bruta re-discovered their scoring touch, with four goals on six shots on target in Argentina.
It was an encouraging sign for Mauricio Barbieri, who has seen his team struggle to score goals lately, with only two in their previous four matches before their four-goal outburst against Rosario.
In the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A, this team have struggled to maintain their solid early form, winning only one of their previous seven domestic fixtures and losing 2-1 to Juventude on Saturday.
This team have plenty of attacking options that can score, but the first leg showed that when they play a wide-open attacking game, they leave themselves vulnerable to the counter, conceding three goals on seven targeted efforts to the Argentines.
Their one-goal advantage may be narrow heading into this pivotal second leg, but scoring four away goals could prove decisive given that they have not lost a match all season by more than one goal and have never conceded more than two goals at home in any competitive fixture this season.
Academia were uncharacteristically weak defensively in the opening leg, letting in four goals for the first time in any competitive match this year, the most goals they had conceded since a 5-0 defeat to Independiente in February 2020.
Spotting Bragantino four away goals is not an ideal scenario for Kily Gonzalez and his team heading on the road, where they have lost three successive matches, going goalless in their last two.
If there is an encouraging sign for this team going into this decisive match, it could be the fact that they were able to generate seven shots on target and create plenty of quality scoring opportunities, something they have failed to do domestically of late.
Rosario have lost their last five matches in all competitions, and even though they were all by a single goal, they fired three shots on target or fewer in three of those matches.
If they want to advance into the final four of this tournament they need to score and score often, as only a two-goal victory or a one-goal win of 5-4 or higher will be enough to send them through, while a 4-3 victory would force extra time.
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Team News
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Artur scored a hat-trick in the first leg for Bragantino, his first three goals in this competition since May 11, while Bruno Praxedes fired home the opening goal in the first leg, his first of the tournament.
Braga made wholesale changes to their starting 11 this weekend against Juventude from their first leg matchup with Rosario as Cleiton, Edimar, Leo Ortiz, Aderlan, Lucas Evangelista, Raul, Tomas Cuello, Praxedes, Artur and Ytalo all sat out, with Fabricio Bruno coming on as a substitute.
Marco Ruben notched a brace in the opening leg for Canalla, his first two goals of this tournament, while Milton Caraglio scored for the first time at this competition.
This weekend, Rosario had almost an entirely different side from the team that played against Bragantino, with goalkeeper Jorge Broun the only player to see the field and Ignacio Russo scoring the only goal versus Independiente, while Fernando Torrent, Nicolas Ferreyra, Ricardo Garay and Nahuel Franco started as the back four.
Bragantino possible starting lineup:
Cleiton; Edimar, Ortiz, Bruno, Aderlan; Ramires, Raul; Helinho, Praxedes, Artur; Ytalo
Rosario Central possible starting lineup:
Broun; Martinez, Almada, Avila, Blanco; Ojeda; Zabala, Vecchio, Gianccone; Caraglio, Ruben
We say: Bragantino 2-1 Rosario Central
Rosario Central are desperate for goals after conceding four at home in the first leg, so they will have to play a more wide-open style than they are used to, which plays right into the hands of Bragantino, who are the second-highest scoring team in Brazil at the moment with 26 goals in this domestic campaign.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 55.95%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Rosario Central had a probability of 18.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.74%) and 2-1 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.71%), while for a Rosario Central win it was 0-1 (7.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Bragantino in this match.
