Faced with an uphill task to overturn a huge deficit, Olympiacos welcome Bodo/Glimt for the return leg of their Europa League round of 16 encounter.
The Red-Whites suffered a 3-0 defeat in the first leg in Norway, a scoreline that failed to reflect the balance of play in a clash where their profligacy proved costly.
Match preview
© Imago
Olympiacos would have hoped to take at least a goal back to Greece to strengthen their chances of a comeback, but a lack of cutting edge saw them squander four big chances despite registering an xG of 1.99.
That was the first time in seventeen outings across all competitions that the Greek giants failed to find the back of the net since their goalless stalemate against Twente in the league phase of this tournament, while the defeat also brought an end to their 26-match unbeaten streak.
With a mountain to climb, Olympiacos will need to defy history to reach the last eight of the Europa League for the first time ever, as past precedent does not favour such a turnaround.
There have been 59 previous instances (2009-10 onwards) where a team lost the first leg of a knockout tie by three or more goals, and only one side has progressed, with Valencia overturning a 3-0 away loss to win 5-0 at home in the 2013-14 quarter-finals.
While repeating that feat is a tall order, Olympiacos can draw belief from their commanding displays at Karaiskakis Stadium, where two of their four matches in this campaign have ended in emphatic 3-0 victories over Braga and Qarabag.
Those wins are part of a formidable run at home in European competition, with the Red-Whites winning four of their last six matches while remaining unbeaten in the other two, marking their best such streak since going seven without defeat between November 2013 and February 2015.
Another source of inspiration ahead of Thursday's must-win encounter is their 6-0 demolition of AEK Athens at the Karaiskakis in the Greek Cup on February 26, further highlighting their ability to deliver emphatic victories at the ground when it matters most.
Not as convincing, but Jose Luis Mendilibar's side followed that up with a 1-0 triumph against Crete in their next home game, keeping the Thrylos seven points clear at the top of the Super League as they now turn their full attention to their European challenge.
© Imago
Bodo/Glimt, meanwhile, are enjoying a remarkable journey in just their second Europa League campaign, having exited at the group stage in 2022-23.
The Norwegian side secured a playoff spot after narrowly missing out on automatic qualification due to goal difference, finishing ninth in the league phase table.
They showed resilience in that round, overturning a 1-0 first-leg deficit in the Netherlands with a dramatic 5-2 extra-time win over Twente to seal a 6-4 aggregate victory.
Now in control of this tie, thanks to an early own goal by Olympiacos goalkeeper Konstantinos Tzolakis and a Kasper Hogh brace in the first leg, the Gleam would be confident of breaking another new ground in the competition.
While Kjetil Knutsen's side hold a commanding lead, they must guard against complacency, especially as Norwegian clubs have struggled in Greece, losing their last four European away matches in the country (including qualifiers).
Bodo/Glimt have also not been in good form on the road recently, with their 2-1 loss in the playoffs at Twente marking a fourth defeat in five games — having also fallen to Manchester United in the league phase, as well as Dusseldorf and Sparta Prague in friendlies — while their only positive result in this run was a draw against Nice.
Team News
© Imago
Striker Ayoub El Kaabi, Olympiacos' all-time top scorer in European competitions at Karaiskakis Stadium with 12 goals in 11 major appearances, will be unavailable due to injury, along with Dani Garcia and Yusuf Yazici.
Mendilibar may stick with the same XI from the first-leg defeat, though Charalampos Kostoulas and Costinha, who were introduced after an hour in Norway, are pushing for starts.
For the visitors, Sondre Fet, forced off midway through the first leg, could be replaced by Ulrik Saltnes in midfield.
Gaute Vetti and Samuel Burakovsky remain sidelined, though on a positive note, Daniel Bassi has returned to training.
Bodo/Glimt are unlikely to make wholesale changes, with Ole Didrik Blomberg and Jens Petter Hauge expected to support Hogh in a three-man attack.
Olympiacos possible starting lineup:
Tzolakis; Ortega, Carmo, Biacone, Rodinei; Mouzakitis, Hezze; Palma, Chiquinho, Martins; Yaremchuk
Bodo/Glimt possible starting lineup:
Haikin; Bjorkan, Gundersen, Bjortuft, Sjvold; Evjen, Berg, Saltnes; Blomberg, Hauge, Hogh
We say: Olympiacos 2-0 Bodo/Glimt (Bodo/Glimt to win 3-2 on aggregate)
Given Olympiacos' strong home record, they are likely to claim victory on the night, but overturning the heavy first-leg deficit remains a daunting challenge.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Adeyeye Oluwapelumi
