Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 40.9%. A win for Fluminense had a probability of 30.1% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.09%) and 2-1 (7.98%). The likeliest Fluminense win was 0-1 (11.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Santos would win this match.