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Santos
Brasileiro | Gameweek 23
Oct 27, 2021 at 11pm UK
Vila Belmiro, Santos
Fluminense

Santos
2 - 0
Fluminense

Madson (33'), Tardelli (62')
Zanocelo (43'), Marinho (79')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Kennedy (43'), Apis (81')

Preview: Santos vs. Fluminense - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Brasileiro clash between Santos and Fluminense, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Santos will welcome Fluminense to Vila Belmiro on Wednesday, and the hosts will be desperate for victory
after ending the weekend in 17th in the Campeonato Brasileiro, which leaves them languishing in the relegation zone.

Meanwhile, the visitors will be searching for three points, as they bid to finish in the top six, which would allow them to participate in the qualifying stage of next season's Copa Libertadores.


Match preview

Santos' Lucas Braga celebrates with teammates after an own goal scored by Libertad and Santos' second on August 13, 2021© Reuters

Santos have collected 29 points from their 27 league games, and as a result, they head into Wednesday's fixture in the drop zone.

One win in their previous 13 league encounters has seen Santos drop down the Campeonato Brasileiro table, and they lost their most recent fixture at the weekend, when they faced America Mineiro.

Ademir scored a penalty in first-half stoppage time to give America Mineiro the lead, before Ale scored early in the second half to seal a 2-0 victory.

Their poor form has been a result of their inability to find the net of late, scoring three goals in their last eight league games, while only finding the net on one occasion in their previous four home matches.

Fabio Carille will be concerned with his side's recent home form, with their previous seven home league games only yielding one victory.

Fluminense coach Marco Aurelio de Oliveira on October 17, 2021© Reuters

Fluminense enter Wednesday's fixture knowing that a win would take them up to sixth position, which would be crucial in their bid to finish in the top six.

A three-game winless run came to an end on October 17, with a 1-0 victory away to Athletico Paranaense, and they followed that impressive result, with another victory at the weekend against their bitter rivals Flamengo.

In the derby, John Kennedy scored a brace to give Fluminense a 2-0 lead, and despite Rene pulling a goal back for Flamengo, the win was sealed when Abel Hernandez scored to make it 3-1.

Marcao will be pleased with his side's recent defensive displays, with Fluminense only conceding one goal in their last four outings.

The visitors will be hopeful of collecting something from the encounter, after suffering only one defeat in their previous four league away games.

Santos Brasileiro form:
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • L

Fluminense Brasileiro form:
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • W



Team News

Santos' Kaiky is shown a red card by referee Leodan Gonzalez on August 13, 2021© Reuters

Santos have a long list of injuries, which include Leo Baptistao and John, who are out with calf and meniscus injuries respectively.

Thigh problems rule both Luiz Felipe and Kaiky Melo out of the encounter, while Gabriel Pirani and Jobson are both out with ankle issues.

Jean Mota was sent off two minutes after coming on as a substitute against America Mineiro, which means the midfielder will be suspended for Wednesday's contest.

Fluminense will have to do without Gabriel Teixeira and Fred, who are both missing through injury.

They are joined in the treatment room by Nino and Ganso, while Hudson is out for an extended period with an ACL injury.

Marcao is expected to name a similar lineup to the one that started the derby at the weekend and that means Kennedy will continue to lead the line after scoring twice at the weekend.

Santos possible starting lineup:
Paulo; Danilo, Velazquez, Leonardo; Guilherme, Balieiro, Zanocelo, Braga; Sanchez, Marinho, Tardelli

Fluminense possible starting lineup:
Marcos; Xavier, Braz, Claro, Marlon; Andre, Yago, Arias; Henrique, Paulista, Kennedy


SM words green background

We say: Santos 1-1 Fluminense

Santos are unbeaten in their last six home meetings with Wednesday's opponents, but given their current poor run of form we think that the hosts will have to settle for a point against a Fluminense side who are in confident mood after winning their last two games.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 40.9%. A win for Fluminense had a probability of 30.1% and a draw had a probability of 29%.

The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.09%) and 2-1 (7.98%). The likeliest Fluminense win was 0-1 (11.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Santos would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Santos vs Fluminense

Santos
35.7%
Draw
28.6%
Fluminense
35.7%
14
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Palmeiras team huddle before the match on June 28, 2021
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11Corinthians331011123941-241
12Gremio33116163842-439
13Vitoria33115173848-1038
14Athletico ParanaenseAthletico PR33107163541-637
15Fluminense33107162836-837
16CriciumaCriciuma33910143948-937
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