Brazil Under-23s face Egypt Under-23s in the quarter-finals of the Olympic Games on Saturday, with Brazil looking to reach the semi-finals for the fourth consecutive Olympics.
Egypt, meanwhile, are looking to reach that stage of this competition for the first time since 1964 Olympics, which interestingly was also hosted in Tokyo.
Match preview
© Reuters
Spearheaded by Richarlison, Brazil cruised to top spot of Group D by taking seven points from a possible nine.
A 0-0 draw against Ivory Coast - in which Douglas Luiz was sent off in only the 11th minute - was sandwiched by 4-2 and 3-1 wins over Germany and Saudi Arabia respectively, with the Everton forward scoring a phenomenal five goals across the two victories.
Alongside Spain, who named six players in their squad who had also played major roles in helping the senior team reach the semi-final of Euro 2020 earlier in July, there is little doubt that Brazil have the most talented squad at their disposal in this year's Olympics.
As such, head coach Andre Jardine will be expecting nothing less than a comfortable win against Egypt on Saturday as they attempt to keep some energy remaining in the tank ahead of a potential semi-final showdown against the Spaniards.
© Reuters
Indeed, having only taken one point from their first two matches, there may be an element of being happy to have reached the quarter-finals within the Egypt squad.
However, Shawky Gharieb's side have proved that they will be no pushovers against a more gifted Brazilian outfit on Saturday, having only conceded one goal in their three matches at the Olympics so far.
Likewise, though, they have only scored two themselves having taken an excellent point from a 0-0 draw against Spain in their opening game before losing 1-0 to Argentina. Crucially, they beat Australia 2-0 last time out to pip the Olyroos to second spot in Group C.
The African outfit must retain their defensive solidity from the group stages while potentially offering more threat in transition in order to avoid being pinned inside their own defensive third for long spells during Saturday's quarter-final.
- W
- D
- W
- D
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Brazil will welcome Douglas Luiz back to the fold after the Aston Villa midfielder served his suspension for the win against Saudi Arabia.
The 23-year-old is likely to come back into Jardine's starting XI, with Matheus Henrique dropping back out of the side.
That enforced switch has been Gardine's solitary change of the tournament so far, so it would be a surprise to see any others at this stage of the competition, especially given their excellent form.
Egypt, meanwhile, are likely to continue with the 3-5-2 system which served them well during the 2-0 win against Australia, with no changes in personnel likely given the impressive nature of the victory.
Former West Bromwich Albion defender Ahmed Hegazi, who is captaining his national team as one of their over-age players at the Olympics, will once again lead Gharieb's well-drilled defensive unit from the middle of the back three.
Brazil Under-23s possible starting lineup:
Santos; Alves, Nino, Carlos, Arana; Luiz, Guimaraes; Antony, Cunha, Claudinho; Richarlison
Egypt Under-23s possible starting lineup:
El Shenawy; Galal, Hegazi, Hamdy; El Eraki, Mohamed, Tawfik, Sobhi, El Fotouh; Mohsen, Rayyan
We say: Brazil Under-23s 2-0 Egypt Under-23s
We expect Brazil to have too much class across the pitch for Egypt to be able to hang on for the entire game.
However, given Egypt's impressive defensive record, it would be little surprise if the Brazilians have to remain patient in order to book their fourth successive semi-final at the Olympic Games.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brazil Under-23s win with a probability of 52.97%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Egypt Under-23s had a probability of 23.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brazil Under-23s win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.74%) and 2-0 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.27%), while for a Egypt Under-23s win it was 0-1 (6.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Brazil Under-23s in this match.
