Copa Libertadores | First Round | 2nd Leg

Feb 16, 2023 at 12am UK

Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

El Nacional
3 - 1
Nacional

(El Nacional win 9-2 on aggregate)

Micolta (18'), Marcelo Julio Santos (45'), Palacios (90+1')
Micolta (54'), Balda (59')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Cristaldo (55')
Saucedo (36'), Prost (61'), Mustafa (86')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores First Round clash between El Nacional and Nacional Potosi.

Form, Standings, Stats

El Nacional

Last Game: Nacional 1-6 El Nacional
Thursday, February 9 at 12am in Copa Libertadores

Nacional Potosi

Last Game: Nacional 1-6 El Nacional
Thursday, February 9 at 12am in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a El Nacional win with a probability of 59.81%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Nacional Potosi had a probability of 18.87%.

The most likely scoreline for a El Nacional win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.78%) and 2-0 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10%), while for a Nacional Potosi win it was 1-2 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that El Nacional would win this match.

Result
El Nacional	Draw	Nacional Potosi
59.81% ( -1.3)	21.32% ( 0.7)	18.87% ( 0.6)

Both teams to score 55.3% (

-1.29)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.98% (

-2.25)

42.02% (

2.25)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.58% (

-2.29)

64.42% (

2.3)

El Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.33% (

-1.09)

13.67% (

1.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.13% (

-2.22)

40.87% (

2.23)

Nacional Potosi Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.06% (

-0.68)

35.94% (

0.68)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.28% (

-0.7)

72.72% (

0.7)

Score Analysis

El Nacional 59.81%

Nacional Potosi 18.87%

Draw 21.32%

El Nacional	Draw	Nacional Potosi
2-1 @ 9.96% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 9.78% ( 0.58) 2-0 @ 9.73% ( 0.2) 3-1 @ 6.6% ( -0.26) 3-0 @ 6.45% ( -0.14) 3-2 @ 3.38% ( -0.2) 4-1 @ 3.29% ( -0.27) 4-0 @ 3.21% ( -0.2) 4-2 @ 1.68% ( -0.18) 5-1 @ 1.31% ( -0.17) 5-0 @ 1.28% ( -0.14) Other @ 3.15% Total : 59.81%	1-1 @ 10% ( 0.42) 2-2 @ 5.09% ( -0.09) 0-0 @ 4.91% ( 0.48) 3-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.16% Total : 21.32%	1-2 @ 5.12% ( 0.12) 0-1 @ 5.03% ( 0.41) 0-2 @ 2.57% ( 0.16) 1-3 @ 1.75% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.67% Total : 18.87%