FA Cup

FA Cup | First Round Replays

Nov 15, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

The Amlin Stadium

Cray Valley
1 - 6
Charlton

Lisbie (44' pen.)
Williams (76')

FT(HT: 1-1)

May (35', 51'), Leaburn (49'), Dobson (58'), Campbell (77'), Mbick (85')
Walker (43')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's FA Cup clash between Cray Valley Paper Mills and Charlton Athletic, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Cray Valley Paper Mills

Last Game: Charlton 1-1 Cray Valley
Sunday, November 5 at 5.30pm in FA Cup

Charlton Athletic

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Portsmouth 2-2 Charlton
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Cray Valley Paper Mills 0-3 Charlton Athletic

Not a single ounce of pressure should be weighing on the shoulders of Cray Valley, who have already gone toe-to-toe with Charlton on rival territory and should see no reason why lightning cannot strike twice in Eltham. The Addicks would not require a replay had they shown more of a clinical edge on November 5, though, and while the FA Cup always springs a shock or two, we can only picture Appleton's men giving their eighth-tier hosts a rude awakening and booking their spot in the second round. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Charlton Athletic win with a probability of 86.53%. A draw had a probability of 8.7% and a win for Cray Valley Paper Mills had a probability of 4.75%.

The most likely scoreline for a Charlton Athletic win was 0-3 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-4 (8.46%) and 0-2 (8.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.74%), while for a Cray Valley Paper Mills win it was 2-1 (1.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-6 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Charlton Athletic would win this match.

Result
Cray Valley Paper Mills	Draw	Charlton Athletic
4.75% ( -0.05)	8.72% ( -0.03)	86.53% ( 0.08)

Both teams to score 53.72% (

-0.22)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

80.65% (

-0.06)

19.35% (

0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

62.83% (

-0.09)

37.16% (

0.09)

Cray Valley Paper Mills Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.35% (

-0.23)

44.65% (

0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.35% (

-0.18)

80.65% (

0.19)

Charlton Athletic Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

97.05% (

2.95%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

86.66% (

13.33% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Cray Valley Paper Mills 4.75%

Charlton Athletic 86.53%

Draw 8.72%

Cray Valley Paper Mills	Draw	Charlton Athletic
2-1 @ 1.51% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 1.06% ( -0) Other @ 2.19% Total : 4.75%	1-1 @ 3.74% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 2.66% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 1.32% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.01% Total : 8.72%	0-3 @ 9.6% ( 0.05) 0-4 @ 8.46% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 8.17% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 7.74% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 6.82% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 6.59% ( -0.01) 0-5 @ 5.96% ( 0.03) 1-5 @ 4.81% ( -0) 0-1 @ 4.64% ( 0.02) 0-6 @ 3.5% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 3.12% ( -0.02) 1-6 @ 2.82% ( -0) 2-4 @ 2.75% ( -0.02) 2-5 @ 1.94% ( -0.02) 0-7 @ 1.76% ( 0.01) 1-7 @ 1.42% ( -0) 2-6 @ 1.14% ( -0.01) Other @ 5.28% Total : 86.53%