Genoa and Lecce go head to head on Sunday evening in a game which could prove pivotal with regards to relegation from Serie A.
Just a solitary point separates the two clubs, who sit in 17th and 18th position respectively in the standings.
Match preview
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With Udinese having moved seven points clear of the drop zone, Genoa and Lecce have been left to battle to avoid ending the season in the final relegation spot.
At a time when Brescia and SPAL have also been cut adrift further behind them, it puts these two teams in a position where a defeat on Sunday could have direct consequences heading into the final four games.
From the perspective of the home side, they are aware that avoiding defeat will maintain their slender advantage at a time when they only have one top-six team left to play.
However, while Lecce can ill-afford defeat at the weekend, they have a more favourable schedule than their hosts, throwing up a scenario where they may be prepared to settle for a point on Sunday.
With regards to their recent form, both teams have improved with each match since the resumption, particularly in the case of Lecce who recently defeated previous title challengers Lazio.
Each of Genoa's five points from the last six matches have come against direct rivals, however, which suggests that they are capable of handling the pressure on occasions such as the game on Sunday.
Although they were well beaten by Torino earlier this week, their other two recent setbacks have come at the hands of Juventus and Napoli.
Lecce can also count a defeat to Juve in their most recent set of results, while they succumbed in a competitive encounter at in-form Sassuolo having headed into the closing stages on level terms.
Genoa Serie A form: DLDLWL
Lecce Serie A form: LLLWDL
Team News
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Genoa boss Davide Nicola must decide whether to stick with a 3-4-1-2 formation, a strategy which did not prove to be effective against Torino.
However, the suspension of centre-back Cristian Romero may force Nicola's hand, with Lasse Schone and Valon Behrami combining as a two-man partnership in the centre.
Former Tottenham Hotspur man Iago Falque is expected to keep his place in a creative role behind the front two.
Lecce manager Fabio Liverani is likely to make at least one alteration to his team after the setback at Fiorentina.
Panagiotis Tachtsidis is pushing for a recall in midfield, while Evgen Shakhov could be handed responsibility behind the attack after netting as a substitute.
Genoa possible starting lineup:
Perin; Biraschi, Zapata, Masiello; Ghiglione, Schone, Behrami, Criscito; Falque; Pinamonti, Pandev
Lecce possible starting lineup:
Gabriel; Rispoli, Lucioni, Paz, Donati; Petriccione, Tachtsidis, Barak; Shakhov; Farias, Babacar
We say: Genoa 1-1 Lecce
Given everything which is at stake, this will inevitably be a tense affair. Taking that into consideration, expect the goals in this contest to be shared equally.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 50.69%. A win for Lecce had a probability of 25.61% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.56%) and 2-0 (8.28%). The likeliest Lecce win was 1-2 (6.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Genoa in this match.
