Relegation-threatened Genoa will be looking to pull off a shock victory against a high-flying Napoli side when the clubs lock horns in Wednesday's Serie A clash.
Genoa managed to salvage a late 2-2 draw against Udinese at the weekend, whereas Napoli enjoyed a 2-1 victory over fellow European hopefuls Roma last time out.
Match preview
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Genoa looked down and out with 10 minutes left to play against Udinese, but two inspired substitutions by Davide Nicola ensured that his side came away with a share of the spoils in a thrilling clash on Sunday.
Goran Pandev halved the deficit in the 81st minute before Andrea Pinamonti levelled the scores six minutes into injury time as Genoa gained a vital point in their bid to avoid the drop.
Nicola's men are still very much at risk of relegation to the second tier, however, as they remain teetering above the relegation zone on 27 points, two clear of 18th-placed Lecce with eight games left to play.
Genoa have not played outside the Italian top flight since the 2006-07 season, but Nicola's side are still searching for their first win since the restart and have suffered defeat in their last three matches on home soil.
Furthermore, Il Grifones are four points adrift of 16th-placed Torino and cannot move any higher with a victory, but Genoa are likely to take comfort in knowing that Lecce have a tough test against Lazio to contend with the day before.
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In contrast, Napoli recovered from their defeat to Champions-league chasing Atalanta as they scraped a narrow 2-1 victory over Roma on Sunday evening.
Jose Callejon broke the deadlock for Napoli before the Spaniard's opener was cancelled out by on-loan Arsenal midfielder Henrikh Mkhitaryan, but Lorenzo Insigne's 82nd-minute winner ensured that Napoli came away with all three points against the European hopefuls.
Of course, Napoli are already assured of a spot in the Europa League following their Coppa Italia triumph, and with Gennaro Gattuso's side currently 15 points adrift of the top four, it seems unlikely that Napoli will break into the Champions League places at this late stage of the campaign.
Nevertheless, Gennaro's men have been in strong form recently with six wins from their last seven league outings, and Napoli have only tasted defeat once in their last 11 games in all competitions.
The focus will surely now turn to the Champions League for Gattuso and his players, with Napoli looking to build on their 1-1 home draw with Barcelona when they face off against the La Liga giants in the second leg of their last-16 tie at Camp Nou in August.
Genoa Serie A form: LWLDLD
Napoli Serie A form: WWWWLW
Napoli form (all competitions): DWWWLW
Team News
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Genoa will welcome Lasse Schone back from a one-match suspension, and the Danish midfielder is likely to slot straight back into the starting lineup.
Domenico Criscito and Ivan Radovanovic are not expected to feature for the rest of the campaign, but Nicola may opt against making too many changes to his side from the draw with Udinese.
As far as Napoli are concerned, highly-coveted defender Kalidou Koulibaly will sit this one out after picking up his fifth yellow card of the season against Roma.
The Senegalese centre-back will be joined by Diego Demme, who is also serving a yellow card suspension, with Nikola Maksimovic and Stanislav Lobotka expected to deputise in the pair's absence.
David Ospina, Allan and Kevin Malcuit are all nursing injuries and will not be available for Gattuso.
Genoa possible starting lineup:
Perin; Romero, Soumaro, Masiello; Biraschi, Schone, Behrami, Sturaro, Cassata; Falque, Pandev
Napoli possible starting lineup:
Meret; Di Lorenzo, Maksimovic, Manolas, Rui; Ruiz, Lobotka, Zielinski; Callejon, Milik, Insigne
We say: Genoa 1-3 Napoli
Genoa are definitely capable of making life difficult against this Napoli side, and Gattuso will not be taking this fixture lightly. Genoa will feel confident in attack given the absence of Koulibaly, but Napoli's attacking threat makes them the clear favourites and we expect the visitors to travel back to Naples with all three points.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 56.17%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 21.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.22%) and 0-2 (8.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.28%), while for a Genoa win it was 2-1 (5.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Napoli in this match.
