AT&T Stadium in Arlington will be the site for a rematch from the 2019 Gold Cup semi-final when the USA host Jamaica in the 2021 quarter-finals on Sunday.

The Yanks hung onto a 1-0 lead for virtually their entire game against Canada to top Group B, while the Reggae Boyz finished second in Group C after losing their last match by the same score to Costa Rica.

Match preview

United States forward Paul Arriola (7) celebrates his goal against Guyana at the Gold Cup on June 18, 2019 © Reuters

The opening phase of the Gold Cup was a relatively routine one for Gregg Berhalter and his side, who made it through to the knockout stage with three victories, scoring eight goals and conceding just one.

They won their group last Sunday thanks to some miscues from their Canadian rivals as they scored in the opening 20 seconds with a tap-in from Shaquell Moore, the fastest goal ever scored at the Gold Cup.

While they won their group for the fourth consecutive time, they appeared to sit back after taking the lead against Canada, as they were incredibly passive, firing only six shots through the 90 minutes, only one of which was on target.

If history is any indication, the Americans will only get better as this tournament continues, having only ever lost once in the last eight at the Gold Cup in 2000.

The US have not lost to a team in CONCACAF since a 2-0 defeat to Canada at the Nations League group stage in the winter of 2019, winning their last 10 fixtures against teams in the region.

That defeat to their northern neighbours seemed to wake this team up as they have won 11 of their 12 games since that loss, with their only blemish coming in a friendly to Switzerland back in May, which they lost 2-1.

The Jamaicans put forward probably their best performance of the group stage in their final game, but it was not enough, as they dropped a 1-0 decision to Costa Rica to finish second in their group for the second time in their last three Gold Cup campaigns.

On Tuesday, they outshot Los Ticos 18-5 and had 56% possession, but they could not make it count, even though they had a man advantage for the final 18 minutes of the match, plus injury time.

Theodore Whitmore has seen his team thrive in the knockout stage, progressing beyond the last eight in their previous three tournaments, with the previous two coming under his guidance.

Given the history between these two nations at this competition, you know Jamaica will want to win this match in the worst way, after falling 3-1 to the US in the 2019 semi-final and 2-1 in the 2017 final.

In their last meeting against them, Whitmore saw his team get dominated from virtually the opening whistle as the Yanks defeated the Jamaicans in a friendly back in March, 4-1.

Jamaica have not lost a quarter-final match at this competition since 2011 when they were beaten once again by the Americans, so winning against a team who they have only beaten once in six Gold Cup matches would mean a lot for this team.

USA CONCACAF Gold Cup form:

USA form (all competitions):

Jamaica CONCACAF Gold Cup form:

Jamaica form (all competitions):

Team News

United States head coach Gregg Berhalter pictured in December, 2020 © Reuters

US striker Paul Arriola sat out of their match against Canada because of hamstring tightness, while Reggie Cannon made his first appearance at the tournament in that match, coming on as a second-half substitute, and Walker Zimmerman captained the Yanks for a second successive match.

Zimmerman is one of four players to start every match for the Americans at this competition thus far, along with goalkeeper Matt Turner, Shaq Moore and Miles Robinson.

Berhalter made four changes from the starting 11 against Martinique, with Sam Vines, Kellyn Acosta, Sebastian Lletget and Gyasi Zardes entering the fray against the Canadians.

With qualification already assured, Jamaican goalkeeper Andre Blake sat out of their match with Costa Rica in favour of Dillon Barnes, as the English-born keeper conceded on the only shot that he faced.

Defender Kemar Lawrence got his first start of the competition versus the Costa Ricans, replacing Amari'i Bell, while Adrian Mariappa and Oniel Fisher played alongside Lawrence in the back four.

Andre Gray was the lone striker for Jamaica against Costa Rica, as Cory Burke and Shamar Nicholson came on as substitutes.

USA possible starting lineup:
Turner; Moore, Zimmerman, Sands, Vines; Yueill, Busio, Lletget, Roldan; Dike, Zardes

Jamaica possible starting lineup:
Blake; Lawrence, Powell, Lowe, Fisher; Bailey, Flemmings, Turgott, Williams, Magee; Burke

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We say: USA 1-0 Jamaica

The Americans have won four of their last five fixtures against the Reggae Boyz, and they have not conceded a goal at the quarter-finals of the Gold Cup in their previous three campaigns.

In their last three Gold Cup quarter-finals, Jamaica are unbeaten, but they have not shown that they have enough consistency or depth to match an American side who have been a thorn in their side at this competition.

Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Written by
Joel Lefevre

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 52.03%. A win for Jamaica had a probability of 24.26% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.71%) and 2-0 (8.76%). The likeliest Jamaica win was 0-1 (6.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for USA in this match.