Kenya play host to rivals Uganda on Thursday at the Nyayo National Stadium in Nairobi to kick off their 2022 World Cup qualifying journey.
Looking to put the disappointment of unsuccessful AFCON qualifying campaigns behind them, the sides can do no better than securing a spot at next year's global event.
Match preview
© Reuters
Despite picking up four points from their final two qualifiers following a 2-1 win over Togo, Kenya could only manage a third-place finish in Group G.
Jacob Mulee's men failed to win any of their first five fixtures prior to the trip to Stade de Kegue and had an insurmountable task of usurping either of Egypt or Comoros.
Notwithstanding, goals in either half from Hassan Abdallah and Masoud Juma rendered Henri Eninful's stoppage-time strike inconsequential, firing the East Africans to all three points in Lome.
Thursday's hosts now prepare for the visit of an opposing side who have proven to be a tough nut to crack judging by recent meetings involving the teams.
The Harambee Stars have won just one of the previous five clashes dating back to 2015 with each of the last three ending in a share of the spoils.
Uganda failed to come out on top for the sixth game running following a 3-2 defeat against South Africa at the First National Bank Stadium on June 6.
Milutin Sredojevic's men took the lead through Ibrahim Orit, before Bongokuhle Hlongwane's strike either side of an Evidence Makgopa brace turned the game on its head in Johannesburg where Lumala Abdu pulled one back for his side in added time.
The Cranes, who were on course to feature at next year's continental championship after amassing seven points from their first three qualifiers, only managed to pick up one from the final three fixtures, hence a third-placed finish in Group C.
Like their hosts, Thursday's visitors have never made an appearance at the World Cup, and now is as good a time as any to break that duck.
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Team News
Unbeaten in four games, Jacob Mulee has unsurprisingly named a relatively unchanged squad from last time out with only a few new additions.
However, skipper Victor Wanyama was left out of the team, and the Montreal midfield lynchpin will not be adding to his 64 national team caps.
Nineteen-year-old Frank Odhiambo has been handed his first-ever call after catching the eye with his performances for local club Gor Mahia.
Having opened his account for the visitors during the last international break, Lumala Abdu will be raring to go again with the wind in his sails.
Ibrahim Orit was also on target for Uganda in what was only his second outing, and the winger is staking a huge claim for a place in the starting XI.
Kenya possible starting lineup:
Saruni; Ouma, Senaji, Alembi, Sakari; Odada, Abuya, Otieno; Mungai, Olunga, Miheso
Uganda possible starting lineup:
Watenga; Willa, Kizza, Lwaliwa, Juuko; Okello, Kagimu, Lwanga, Wasiwa; Orit, Okwi
We say: Kenya 1-1 Uganda
Affairs between Thursday's opponents are usually low-scoring, and we can see that trend continuing here. The onus is more on the home side to seize the initiative and emerge victorious, but we are tipping the away side to come out of this one with a point to their name.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kenya win with a probability of 48.81%. A win for Uganda had a probability of 26.41% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kenya win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.47%) and 2-0 (8.48%). The likeliest Uganda win was 0-1 (7.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
