Lazio play host to Cagliari on Thursday evening looking to halt a five-match winless streak which has ended their hopes of winning the Serie A title.
Although the home side are safely in mid-table, they head into the contest at Stadio Olimpico on the back of six games without success.
Match preview
© Reuters
While Simone Inzaghi has received widespread praise for the job he has done with Lazio this season, the former striker must now come through a period of criticism in order to end the campaign on a high.
Four defeats from five games, which includes a defeat at leaders Juventus, have left Lazio in fourth position, 11 points adrift of the defending champions.
Fortunately for I Biancocelesti, rivals Roma sit the same distance behind them in fifth place, putting them under no threat of losing the final Champions League spot.
Nevertheless, with second position still a realistic possibility, there will be a desire to get another victory on the board as soon as possible.
Although Inzaghi will expect at least one win to come from home fixtures with Thursday's opponents or Brescia, Lazio have netted just two goals from open play in their last five encounters.
Like their hosts, Cagliari are becoming increasing desperate to end a prolonged period without a maximum return, a run which stretches back to June 27.
However, four of their last six outings have ended in draws, including against in-form Sassuolo on Saturday evening in a game where they played at a man disadvantage from the 48th minute.
Cagliari's equaliser also came after Andrea Carboni's dismissal, further highlighting that this squad are playing for recently-appointed boss Walter Zenga.
Despite being presented with arguably the toughest run-in of all the 20 teams in the division, it may suit a group of players who still have ambitions of ending the campaign in the top half of the table.
Lazio Serie A form: WLLLDL
Cagliari Serie A form: DLDDLD
Team News
© Reuters
Luis Alberto is one of a number of Lazio players who remain absent through injury, something which led to Inzaghi being unable to fill his substitutes' bench for the last match.
Although Patric is back in contention after a ban, Inzaghi may be prepared to name the same starting lineup.
The dismissal of Carboni against Sassuolo will lead to Zenga making at least one alteration for the trip to Rome.
Former Liverpool defender Ragnar Klavan is likely to come into the back three for Cagliari, while Giovanni Simeone is pushing for a recall in the final third.
The return of the Argentine would probably result in Gaston Pereiro having to be content with a spot on the substitutes' bench.
Lazio possible starting lineup:
Strakosha; Bastos, Felipe, Acerbi; Lazzari, Milinkovic-Savic, Cataldi, Parolo, Anderson; Caicedo, Immobile
Cagliari possible starting lineup:
Cragno; Cepptelli, Pisacane, Klavan; Nandez, Farago, Rog, Birsa, Mattiello; Simeone, Pedro
We say: Lazio 2-0 Cagliari
Despite their recent dismal run, we feel that this is the perfect fixture for Lazio to get back on track. Although Cagliari may make things difficult for a time, the home side should be able to come through with a relatively comfortable win.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 55.54%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Cagliari had a probability of 20.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.16%) and 2-1 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.26%), while for a Cagliari win it was 0-1 (6.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
