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Burnley logo
Premier League | Gameweek 3
Aug 29, 2021 at 2pm UK
Turf Moor
Leeds logo

Burnley
1 - 1
Leeds

Wood (61')
Brownhill (19'), Barnes (28'), Mee (45+1'), Lennon (90')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Bamford (86')
Phillips (38'), Rodrigo (53'), Struijk (81')

Preview: Burnley vs. Leeds United - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Premier League clash between Burnley and Leeds United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Burnley welcome Leeds United to Turf Moor on Sunday afternoon, with the two sides looking to claim their first three points of the new season.

Both clubs head into this fixture after progressing from the second round of the League Cup in midweek, with the Clarets forced to beat Newcastle United on penalties, while the Whites secured a routine victory against League One opposition.


Match preview

Burnley manager Sean Dyche pictured on August 21, 2021© Reuters

Burnley were unable to replicate their impressive victory at Anfield in January, as they were defeated 2-0 by Liverpool last weekend.

Goals either side of half time from Diogo Jota and Sadio Mane condemned the Clarets to their second successive defeat after losing to Brighton & Hove Albion on the opening day.

Since then, Sean Dyche's men progressed from the second round of the League Cup after beating Newcastle 4-3 on penalties at St James' Park following a goalless draw in 90 minutes.

Wayne Hennessey pulled off three saves in Wednesday's shootout on his debut for Dyche's side, who have been rewarded with a favourable third-round tie at home to League Two outfit Rochdale next month.

Burnley now turn their attention back to the Premier League – a competition which remains their priority – with a home clash against Leeds United, who thrashed them 4-0 at Turf Moor last season, inflicting Dyche's joint-heaviest top-flight defeat on home soil since he took charge in 2012.

The Clarets have in fact lost each of their last five league games at Turf Moor; they have only suffered a longer run of home league defeats once in their history, losing seven consecutive matches back in February 1890.

Dyche will not be too concerned with his side's slow start at such an early stage to the campaign, but a positive result on Sunday could be the springboard they need to put a positive run of form together.

Leeds United's Raphinha celebrates scoring against Everton in the Premier League on August 21, 2021© Reuters

Like Burnley, Leeds United are yet to claim all three points from a Premier League game this season, though they were able to come from behind twice to rescue a solitary point at home against Everton last weekend.

A brilliant curling effort from Raphinha in the 72nd minute ultimately secured a point for the Whites, in front of over 36,000 roaring home supporters who could finally see Premier League football at Elland Road for the first time since 2004.

Around 34,000 were also in attendance for their League Cup clash against Crewe Alexandra on Tuesday night, with Marcelo Bielsa's men securing a comfortable 3-0 win against the League One outfit, with a third-round tie away at Fulham awaiting next month.

Bielsa's side have provided thrilling entertainment for the neutral with 13 match goals across their opening three games, but as exciting as his expansive brand of football is to watch, their efforts defensively are certainly a cause for concern.

Leeds conceded 54 top-flight goals last season and have already let seven strikes in this term; the Whites must tighten up at the back if they are to not only avoid the dreaded second-season syndrome, but also build on an impressive ninth-place finish from last season.

Since their return to the Premier League, Leeds are yet to draw away from home, winning and losing 10 games each. An emphatic 4-0 victory was secured in this fixture last season, and with that in mind, they will be confident of securing their first three points of the new season on Sunday.

Burnley Premier League form:
  • L
  • L

Burnley form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • W

Leeds United Premier League form:
  • L
  • D

Leeds United form (all competitions):
  • L
  • D
  • W


Team News

Leeds United's Jack Harrison celebrates scoring their second goal against Burnley in the Premier League on May 15, 2021© Reuters

Incredibly, Dyche brought some old-school charm to the Premier League last weekend, when the starting lineup he named were numbered one to 11, the first time this has happened in the top flight since 1998-99.

The Clarets boss is not expected to make too many changes, if any, from that side that lost to Liverpool, which is likely to see Ashley Barnes support Chris Wood up front, leaving Jay Rodriguez on the bench.

Summer signing Nathan Collins started in defence ahead of James Tarkowski in midweek, but the latter is set to return to the first XI and play alongside ever-present centre-back Ben Mee.

Dyche's only injury concerns are with midfielder Dale Stephens and defender Kevin Long, who remain sidelined with respective ankle and knee injuries which led to the pair undergoing surgery at the end of last term.

As for Leeds, Bielsa is likely to revert back to the starting lineup that played against Everton last weekend.

Luke Ayling and Liam Cooper are set to replace Jamie Shackleton and Diego Llorente in defence, while Stuart Dallas and Mateusz Klich are expected to start in central midfield ahead of Adam Forshaw and Tyler Roberts, with Kalvin Phillips to remain in a deep-lying playmaker role.

In attack, Patrick Bamford, who was recently called up to the England squad for the first time, is set to lead the line as the lone striker, which will likely see Rodrigo drop to the bench.

Defender Robin Koch remains Bielsa's only injury concern, as the German continues to recover from a groin problem.

Burnley possible starting lineup:
Pope; Lowton, Tarkowski, Mee, Taylor; Gudmundsson, Cork, Westwood, McNeil; Barnes, Wood

Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Meslier; Ayling, Struijk, Cooper, Firpo; Phillips; Raphinia, Dallas, Klich, Harrison; Bamford


SM words green background

We say: Burnley 0-2 Leeds United

Leeds won home and away against Burnley last season by an aggregate score of 5-0. They had plenty of joy at Turf Moor and we can see Bielsa's men causing problems for the hosts once again this weekend.

The Clarets lack creativity which the likes of Barnes and Wood are crying out for, as they linger in and around the penalty box. If they are not provided with service, then Dyche's men will struggle to carve out chances.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 44.61%. A win for Burnley had a probability of 29.33% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.02%) and 0-2 (7.99%). The likeliest Burnley win was 1-0 (8.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Burnley vs Leeds

Burnley
16.0%
Draw
13.6%
Leeds United
70.4%
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Leeds United midfielder Kalvin Phillips pictured on January 10, 2021
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sunderland1695226121432
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd1610422191232
3Burnley168621961330
4Leeds UnitedLeeds158522491529
5Middlesbrough1683529191027
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom166821811726
7Watford168262524126
8Millwall166641914524
9Blackburn RoversBlackburn156451917222
10Bristol City165742020022
11Derby CountyDerby165562020020
12Stoke CityStoke165561920-120
13Norwich CityNorwich164752524119
14Swansea CitySwansea155461110119
15Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds165471826-819
16Luton TownLuton165381826-818
17Coventry CityCoventry164572223-117
18Oxford UnitedOxford Utd164571924-517
19Plymouth ArgylePlymouth164571728-1117
20Preston North EndPreston163761624-816
21Cardiff CityCardiff164481524-916
22Hull City163671621-515
23Portsmouth152671628-1212
24Queens Park RangersQPR161871326-1311


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