The fight for a Champions League qualification spot in the Women's Super League continues on Sunday, when third-placed Manchester United Women welcome Tottenham Hotspur Ladies to Leigh Sports Village.
Spurs currently sit fourth in the table, just behind this weekend's hosts on goal difference, and both teams enter this fixture in fine form, putting together a five-game unbeaten run across all competitions.
Match preview
© Reuters
Marc Skinner's side will be full of confidence after their 1-0 win against Arsenal in midweek, putting them into the semi-finals of the League Cup.
On Wednesday, Man United put the Gunners under pressure at Borehamwood, pressing high from the start, and their game plan paid off in the 85th minute as Alessia Russo headed the visitors to victory.
That followed an emphatic 5-0 win against Birmingham City last weekend in the WSL, with the goals coming from Katie Zelem, Russo, an own goal from Emily Ramsey and a brace from Leah Galton.
Sunday's home team have won their last five matches in all competitions, and that has helped them leapfrog Spurs into third spot and got them to a cup semi-final, so they could not be in much better form heading into a crucial clash for a European spot next year.
United have managed to pick up slightly more points on their travels this season, but they are more prolific on their own patch, suggesting that the hosts will test Spurs' defence.
© Reuters
Rehanne Skinner's side will also be boosted by success in the League Cup, having set up a semi-final against Manchester City by beating Championship front runners Liverpool 1-0 on Wednesday evening.
Rachel Williams scored the only goal at The Hive on that occasion, but a single strike is all Spurs needed given their strong defensive record this season, the third best in the WSL behind the top two.
Tottenham will have been bruised by their last outing in the WSL on Sunday, when they hosted London rivals West Ham United and despite the visitors being reduced to 10 players, Kate Longhurst equalised in the 92nd minute to cancel out Rosella Ayane's opener for Spurs.
The two points they dropped last weekend allowed Man United to leapfrog them in the table, but Skinner will know that her team can put that right this weekend by taking points off their challengers for third spot.
Earlier in the campaign, Tottenham and Man United played out a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture, that time thanks to a 95th-minute equaliser from Spurs' Ria Percival, and this encounter is also likely to be a tight affair.
- D
- D
- L
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- D
- D
- L
- W
- W
- D
- L
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Skinner made four changes to his team from their League Cup quarter-final tie at Arsenal in midweek, with goalkeeper Sophie Baggaley, full-back Maria Thorisdottir, striker Martha Thomas and winger Kirsty Hanson all coming into the side.
Number one Mary Earps is expected to return between the posts for United, while the back four is likely to remain the same from Wednesday evening, with Thorisdottir lining up alongside Millie Turner, Aoife Mannion and Ona Batlle.
Russo could start by leading the line for the hosts, while Galton scored her second and third goals of the WSL season against Birmingham and will provide a big attacking threat from the left wing.
Tottenham midfielder Kit Graham will remain absent from the Spurs squad for the rest of the campaign after damaging her cruciate ligaments in November.
Spurs boss Skinner made five changes to her team on Wednesday, but she is likely to revert back to a similar side that started against West Ham last weekend, with Jiali Tang leading the line for the visitors.
New signing Evelina Summanen, who joined the Lilywhites from Kristianstads this month, could make her debut for the club in a midfield role.
Manchester United Women possible starting lineup:
Earps; Thorisdottir, Turner, Mannion, Batlle; Risa, Zelem, Ladd; Galton, Russo, Toone
Tottenham Hotspur Ladies possible starting lineup:
Spencer; Harrop, Zadorsky, Bartrip; Green, Clemaron, Percival, Neville; Naz, Tang, Ayane
We say: Manchester United Women 1-0 Tottenham Hotspur Ladies
Given Tottenham's defensive stability this season, Man United may find it difficult to break their visitors down, but home advantage could be a key factor in this encounter.
The reverse game of this fixture was also a close affair and not much has changed since then with both of these teams likened for quality, but Marc Skinner's side should just edge to three points on this occasion.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United Women win with a probability of 55.21%. A win for Tottenham Hotspur Ladies had a probability of 22.77% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United Women win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.64%) and 2-0 (8.37%). The likeliest Tottenham Hotspur Ladies win was 1-2 (5.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester United Women would win this match.
