Two struggling teams in the Eastern Conference will look to end their lengthy winless runs on Saturday when CF Montreal host the New York Red Bulls at Saputo Stadium.
The Canadian side dropped a 2-1 decision last Sunday to DC United, their fifth successive match without a win, while the Red Bulls fell by the same score to the Chicago Fire, extending their winless streak to six games.
Match preview
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After an emotional 5-4 victory over FC Cincinnati in their return home to Saputo Stadium, it has only gone downhill for this promising Montreal squad.
Coming out on top in such an emotionally charged game as that one can often lead to a letdown, but for Wilfried Nancy and his team, that letdown has lasted for four games.
A team who usually are so well-structured at the back have forgotten their defensive assignments over the past couple of weeks, conceding multiple goals in their last four games and allowing eight shots on target last weekend versus DC.
They have struggled all season to finish off their opponents when going ahead, squandering the lead in six different fixtures this season and failing to win in every one of those matches.
Early on in this campaign, it looked like this team could be one of the surprise stories of the year, going unbeaten in their first three games, but lately, they have only had themselves to blame for their misfortunes.
The season, however, is only half done, and Montreal are by no means out of the playoff picture. In fact, quite the contrary, as they are just a point behind the Columbus Crew for that final spot, so they do not have to make up too much ground.
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New York are right behind Montreal in the Eastern Conference table at the moment, but they have arguably struggled even worse than their opponents this weekend.
Tactically, Gerhard Struber seems to have a good grasp on how to play opposing sides effectively, but more often than not, his team have not been able to execute his plan for 90 minutes.
Their high-pressing system has created a lot of quality scoring opportunities, but the players at the moment look gassed and are failing to generate enough positive results to climb up the standings.
Last weekend this young group were left to pay for their early mistakes, going behind 2-0 after only eight minutes of play and chasing the game from there, losing for the third time in their last four games.
They may be a youthful squad with a lot of speed and energy, but they do not do well when having to fight their way back into a match, going winless all season when conceding the opening goal.
Getting back to the basics of the game will be the short-term goal for this team, who seem to have a hard time mastering the constant tactical adjustments Struber makes within each game.
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Team News
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Sebastian Breza, who is on loan from Serie A side Bologna, is expected to make his second career MLS start in goal with starting keeper Clement Diop still suffering from a right leg issue, while backup James Pantemis could miss this match after entering the MLS COVID-19 protocol.
Ballou Tabla and Lassi Lappalainen are out with groin injuries, while Romell Quioto will miss with a hamstring problem.
Defender Rudy Camacho and midfielder Victor Wanyama both missed their match on Sunday with red-card suspensions as Joel Waterman and Emanuel Maciel started in their place, and Zachary Brault-Guillard scored his second goal of the season in a losing effort versus the Black-and-Red.
Red Bulls winger Daniel Royer will hope to draw back into the lineup, having scored four goals against Montreal over his career, including a goal and two assists in their last meeting in 2020.
Royer is questionable with a thigh injury, while Aaron Long is gone for the season with an Achilles tendon rupture, Cameron Harper is nursing a hip injury, while Youba Diarra and Andres Reyes are questionable with hamstring problems.
Dru Yearwood is eligible to return from his yellow card suspension, while striker Tom Barlow scored his first goal of the season late into injury time in their defeat to Chicago.
CF Montreal possible starting lineup:
Breza; Bassong, Miller, Bayiha, Brault-Guillard; Choiniere, Mihailovic, Piette; Toye, Johnsen, Torres
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Carlos; Tolkin, Nealis, Edwards, Duncan; Clark, Casseres, Davis, Amaya; Klimala, Fabio
We say: CF Montreal 2-0 New York Red Bulls
Montreal may not be in the best form at the moment, but they have managed to keep their last five matches close, while also being more clinical in front of goal, even though they have failed to win any of those games.
The Red Bulls look exhausted physically and mentally and have not found the back of the net in three road matches this season.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CF Montreal win with a probability of 38.33%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 35.55% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a CF Montreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.39%) and 2-0 (6.49%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 0-1 (9.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that CF Montreal would win this match.
