Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 78.34%. A draw had a probability of 14.3% and a win for Iceland had a probability of 7.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.24%) and 1-0 (10.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.8%), while for a Iceland win it was 0-1 (2.67%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Belgium would win this match.
