Nottingham Forest square off against Swansea City on Wednesday evening aware that victory will secure their place in the Championship playoffs.
However, should the Welsh outfit prevail at the City Ground, just three points will separate the clubs with two matches remaining.
Match preview
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While Nottingham Forest have faltered in recent games, manager Sabri Lamouchi will be content that the teams below them have failed to take full advantage.
Even having recorded just two points from a possible nine, Forest still sit six points clear of Swansea, while also possessing a superior goal difference.
Although three points on Wednesday night would mathematically secure their playoff spot, a share of the spoils would leave Swansea needing to win their final two games and overturn a deficit of seven goals.
Nevertheless, with his team lacking any kind of momentum ahead of a likely playoff semi-final with one of the in-form teams above them, Lamouchi will feel that his players need to start taking steps towards getting back on track.
That particularly applies in the final third, with Forest having been left reliant on wonder goals or penalties in their last four outings.
The East Midlands outfit welcome a Swansea side who will be motivated to overcome the disappointment of conceding a late winner to Leeds United on Sunday afternoon.
Had they held on for a point, Steve Cooper's team would have edged ahead of sixth-placed Cardiff City, as well as extending their unbeaten run to four matches.
However, there is an argument that remaining out of the top six will at least force the Swans, who have already recorded 15 draws this season, to push for a maximum return on Wednesday, rather than being tempted to settle for avoiding defeat.
Playing away from home may also work in their favour after registering seven points from a possible nine on their travels since the resumption.
Nottingham Forest Championship form: DWWDLD
Swansea City Championship form: WLDWWL
Team News
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Cooper will give Freddie Woodman until the last possible moment to prove his fitness after the goalkeeper suffered a hip problem at the weekend.
Mike van der Hoorn could return to the starting lineup after missing out through injury against Leeds.
As for Forest, Tobias Figueiredo and Tiago Silva are both pushing for recalls at centre-back and attacking midfield respectively.
Carl Jenkinson is likely to continue at right-back with Matty Cash struggling to shake off a knock.
Nottingham Forest possible starting lineup:
Samba; Jenkinson, Figueiredo, Worrall, Ribeiro; Sow, Watson; Lolley, Silva, Ameobi; Grabban
Swansea City possible starting lineup:
Woodman; Cabango, Guehi, Van der Hoorn; Roberts, Fulton, Grimes, Bidwell; Gallagher; Ayew, Brewster
We say: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Swansea City
From Forest's perspective, they will be relatively content with avoiding defeat on Wednesday evening, leaving Swansea to press for a much-needed win. All things considered, we feel that the circumstances will dictate that a draw is played out in the East Midlands.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nottingham Forest win with a probability of 37.59%. A win for Swansea City had a probability of 36.33% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nottingham Forest win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.31%) and 2-0 (6.32%). The likeliest Swansea City win was 0-1 (9.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.
