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[monks data]
Belgium national football team
European Championship | Round of 16
Jun 27, 2021 at 8pm UK
San Mamés Barria
Portugal national football team

Belgium
1 - 0
Portugal

Hazard (42')
Vermaelen (72'), Alderweireld (81')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Palhinha (45'), Dalot (51'), Pepe (77')

Preview: Belgium vs. Portugal - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's European Championship clash between Belgium and Portugal, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

One of the standout ties in the last-16 stage of Euro 2020 will take place in Seville on Sunday evening, with Belgium, who have a 100% record at this summer's competition, facing the holders Portugal.

Belgium breezed into the knockout round by winning all three of their Group B fixtures to top the section, while Portugal ultimately qualified from Group F in third behind France and Germany.


Match preview

Belgium's Kevin De Bruyne celebrates during the Euro 2020 clash with Denmark on June 17, 2021© Reuters

Belgium might have topped their section with three wins from three matches, but Roberto Martinez's side have not exactly been handed an easy draw in the round of 16, with Portugal their opponents in Seville.

The Red Devils started their Group B challenge with a 3-0 success over Russia before recording a 2-1 victory over Denmark in their second match on June 17.

A potentially tricky encounter with Finland was next on June 21, but an own goal from Lukas Hradecky allowed Belgium to take the lead in Russia before the in-form Romelu Lukaku made sure of the points.

Martinez's side are now unbeaten in their last 12 matches and will certainly fancy their chances of challenging for the trophy, although the winner of this contest is likely to face a dangerous Italy side in the quarter-finals.

Belgium finished third at the 2018 World Cup but have not advanced past the quarter-finals of a European Championship since finishing as runners-up in 1980, meaning that their experience in the latter stages is limited despite now being considered as one of the finest sides in international football.

Cristiano Ronaldo in action for Portugal in June 2021© Reuters

Portugal, as mentioned, ultimately qualified from Group F in third position, having picked up a 2-2 draw against France on Wednesday night. The section provided all sorts of twists and turns in the final gameweek, but a spirited Hungary ultimately finished fourth to exit the competition.

Fernando Santos's side were impressive in their group opener against Hungary, recording a 3-0 victory on June 15, but they then suffered a 4-2 loss to Germany, which placed the holders in a tough spot ahead of their clash with France.

Two penalties from Cristiano Ronaldo saw Portugal claim a point against the world champions, which allowed them to advance as one of the best third-placed sides. Ronaldo, meanwhile, is now the joint-leading international goalscorer of all time with 109 alongside Ali Daei, which is just staggering.

A Selecao are, of course, the holders of the European Championship, having triumphed at Euro 2016; they also reached the semi-finals in 2000 and 2012, in addition to claiming the runners-up spot at Euro 2004, which is an indication of their credentials in this famous competition.

Portugal will have to do it the hard way if they are to make another final, with the likes of Italy, France and Spain all possible opponents in the latter stages, and it will be fascinating to see how they perform on Sunday night, as Belgium will certainly believe that they can harm the Iberian side.

Belgium European Championship form:
  • W
  • W
  • W

Belgium form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Portugal European Championship form:
  • W
  • L
  • D

Portugal form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • D



Team News

Portugal's Bruno Fernandes celebrates scoring their fourth goal on June 9, 2021© Reuters

Martinez's team selection for this match is going to be fascinating, but it is expected to be Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard alongside Lukaku in the final third of the field, leaving Dries Mertens on the bench.

Dedryck Boyata should get the nod over Jason Denayer to start in the back three, while Thorgan Hazard is likely to keep out Yannick Carrasco to feature as the left-sided wing-back for the Red Devils.

Youri Tielemans was an unused substitute against Finland but will be back in the side for this match, with Witsel also potentially featuring in the middle of the park, which would allow De Bruyne to form part of the front three.

As for Portugal, Nelson Semedo had been expected to miss out with the problem that he picked up against France in the latter stages of Wednesday's contest, but the defender has trained ahead of his match and should get the nod once again, with Diogo Dalot on standby.

Danilo Pereira is also a doubt with the blow to the face that he suffered against the world champions, but the midfielder is being tipped to overcome the issue to feature as part of a midfield three.

As a result, Bruno Fernandes could again be named on the bench, with Santos likely to stick with the 4-3-3 formation that worked well on Wednesday.

William Carvalho and Ruben Neves are options to replace Danilo - who trained on Friday - but a switch to a 4-2-3-1 formation could also be in the mind of the manager, which would allow Fernandes to return to the starting side but potentially make the holders more open against a dangerous Belgium outfit.

Belgium possible starting lineup:
Courtois; Alderweireld, Boyata, Vertonghen; Meunier, Tielemans, Witsel, T Hazard; E Hazard, Lukaku, De Bruyne

Portugal possible starting lineup:
Patricio; Semedo, Dias, Pepe, Guerreiro; Moutinho, Danilo, Sanches; Bernardo, Ronaldo, Jota


SM words green background

We say: Belgium 1-1 Portugal (Portugal win on penalties)

This is an incredibly difficult game to call, as it really is a flip of the coin. Both teams will feel that they can hurt the other in the final third of the field, and it is set to be a fascinating contest in Seville.

We are finding it tough to separate the two teams over the course of 90 minutes and indeed extra-time and have therefore settled on Portugal advancing to the quarter-finals courtesy of a penalty-shootout success.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Written by
Matt Law

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 39.46%. A win for Belgium had a probability of 36.54% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.31%) and 0-2 (5.72%). The likeliest Belgium win was 2-1 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Portugal vs Belgium

Portugal
52.0%
Draw
22.1%
Belgium
25.9%
498
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Aymeric Laporte celebrates scoring for Spain against Slovakia at Euro 2020 on June 23, 2021
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Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Germany Germany32107
Q Switzerland Switzerland31205
3 Hungary Hungary31023
4 Scotland flag Scotland30121

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Spain Spain33009
Q Italy Italy31114
3 Croatia Croatia30212
4 Albania national flag Albania30121

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
Q England flag England31205
Q Denmark Denmark30303
Q Slovenia Slovenia30303
4 Serbia Serbia30212

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Austria Austria32016
Q France France31205
Q Netherlands Netherlands31114
4 Poland Poland30121

Group E

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Romania Romania31114
Q Belgium Belgium31114
Q Slovakia Slovakia31114
4 Ukraine Ukraine31114

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Portugal Portugal32016
Q Turkey Turkey32016
Q Georgia Georgia31114
4 Czech Republic Czech Republic30121


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