Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nottingham Forest Under-21s win with a probability of 43.5%. A win for Aston Villa Under-21s had a probability of 36.3% and a draw had a probability of 20.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nottingham Forest Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 7.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.31%) and 3-2 (5.27%). The likeliest Aston Villa Under-21s win was 1-2 (6.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 2-2 (7.27%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nottingham Forest Under-21s would win this match.