Ross County need just a point from their final day trip to Motherwell to confirm survival in the Scottish Premiership.
The Staggies are currently 10th in the table, three points ahead of Kilmarnock who travel to Hamilton Academical. However they have a considerably worse goal difference than the East Ayrshire outfit.
Match preview
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If Ross County were to lose on Sunday and Killie won at New Douglas Park, it would be John Hughes's side facing a playoff against Dundee to maintain their top flight status.
Going into the league split, County were just two points off the bottom of the table, but they have picked up seven points from a possible 12 in the Relegation group; only Sunday's hosts Motherwell have more.
On Wednesday night they came from behind to win 2-1 against Hamilton courtesy of strikes just outside of the box from Blair Spittal and Charlie Lakin.
Following a 2-0 triumph over Dundee United, three points at Victoria Park made it back-to-back league victories for the Staggies for the first time since the opening two weekends of the season.
No side has conceded more goals in the Scottish Premiership than County in 2020/21, while only Dundee United have scored fewer. If anything is to cost them safety, it will be their goal difference.
Motherwell are unbeaten in four games since the league split, but that record was only just kept intact on Wednesday night as Devante Cole scored a stoppage-time equaliser in a 2-2 draw against Dundee United.
The Well had trailed 2-0 at halftime, but the point kept them seventh and they can now finish no lower than eighth.
While it has been a disappointing campaign after their third place finish in 2019/20, Graham Alexander has done well to turn the club's fortunes around as they were joint-bottom when he replaced Stephen Robinson in January.
Motherwell have won their last three home matches, the last time they won four successive games at Fir Park was December 2019.
Ross County have only won one of the last five meetings between these two sides, a 1-0 triumph on the opening day of this season. Both encounters since then have ended in victory for Motherwell.
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Team News
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Allan Campbell was forced off just six minutes into Motherwell's game against Dundee United on Wednesday with a twisted ankle, so he is a doubt for this match.
Robbie Crawford would be the obvious replacement in the centre of midfield, although Mark O'Hara is also available.
Club captain Declan Gallagher was dropped in midweek, perhaps with his summer move to Aberdeen in mind. Graham Alexander may decide to give the 30-year-old a send off or stick with Blackburn Rovers loanee Tyler Magloire in the centre of defence.
John Hughes has named the same starting XI for Ross County's past two victories, so is likely to stick with an unchanged team once again.
After coming off the bench to score the winning goal in midweek against Hamilton, Charlie Lakin is pushing for his first start since the league split.
Blair Spittal scored his first goal of the season in Ross County colours on Wednesday night and Hughes has been delighted with the winger's response after returning from a loan spell with Scottish League One side Partick Thistle in January.
Motherwell possible starting lineup:
Kelly; O'Donnell, Magloire, Lamie, McGinley; Foley, Lawless, Crawford; Hastie, Cole, Long
Ross County possible starting lineup:
Laidlaw; Naismith, Donaldson, Iacovitti, Hjelde; Tillson, Vigurs, Kelly; Spittal, White, Gardyne
We say: Motherwell 1-1 Ross County
County seem to have built momentum at just the right time and they have put themselves in a strong position to secure safety. We think they will get the point they need; Motherwell are not easy opposition but the game certainly does not mean as much to Graham Alexander's men.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Motherwell win with a probability of 43.98%. A win for Ross County had a probability of 29.03% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Motherwell win was 1-0 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.78%) and 2-0 (8.25%). The likeliest Ross County win was 0-1 (9.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.
